Very strange stuff is going on at Hawai`i’s coastlines—sea levels
have jumped in the past few months as much as they have in the past century.
Oceanographers are trying to figure out just what’s going
on.
(Image: The pink to reddish areas in this graphic represent
higher than normal sea levels. The blues are lower water. Credit: University of
Hawai`i Sea Level Center.)
But what it means for now is that we are seeing eight to 10
inches higher high tides than we did a year ago.
If you’ve been at the docks, or at low-lying coastlines, you’ve
seen it. This week will see some of the highest high tides.
University of Hawai`i coastal geologist Chip Fletcher said
the superhigh water has been around for some time, and people seeing the unusual
water levels and noting that it's strange are not mistaken.
“No it’s not a mistake - there has been a slug of high sea
level for a year or more that has lingered around the islands,” Fletcher said.
Here is a graph that shows (red line) the actual sea levels,
compared (blue line) to the normal predictions of sea levels. The waviness
reflects tides.
“Definitely an unusual event. We haven’t seen something like
this during the past 20 years or so,” said Mark Merrifield, coastal geologist
with the University of Hawai`i School of Ocean and Earth Science and
Technology.
The good news is that this sudden increase may be temporary.
Merrifield said some forecasts suggests the superhigh tides will last at least through
the summer.
“Elevated sea levels around Hawaii are likely to continue
through the forecast period, potentially enhancing extreme high tides during
May, June, and July,” says this website from the University’s Sea Level Center.
That doesn’t mean the high tides end in July—just that July
is as far in the future as the forecast goes.
This is not a global phenomenon. The Pacific Ocean appears
to be bumpy. The sea levels are higher in some areas (as around the Hawaiian Islands)
and lower in other areas (In coming months, “sea levels are likely to be near
or below-normal in the tropical northwestern Pacific {Yap, Guam, Chuuk, and
Pohnpei} and above-normal in the equatorial central Pacific {Kiritimati}.”)
Merrifield said researchers are working to try to understand
what’s going on.
Meanwhile, the background global sea levels continue to rise, and
at an increasing pace.
This article from the American Geophysical Union says sea
levels are now rising 25 percent faster than they were a quarter-century ago.
The article cites this study published in Geophysical
Research Letters.
The increase appears, the report said, to be “mostly due to
Greenland mass loss increase and also to slight increase of all other
components of the budget.”
The superhigh water of the past few months, on top of the
increasing rate of sea level rise, puts the Islands at significantly increased
risk from events that drive water ashore, like tsunami and major storms.
© Jan TenBruggencate 2017