tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39004385326586042022024-03-14T03:07:58.216-10:00Raising Islands--Hawai'i science and environmentTHE source of news about science and the environment as they relate to the Hawaiian Islands, hosted by veteran science reporter Jan TenBruggencate. Issues covered include archaeology, astronomy, botany, climate science, conservation, efficient transportation, geology, marine sciences, sustainability and zoology, with occasional forays into other areas, including traditional navigation and canoe voyaging.Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.comBlogger809125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-43784613284353975012023-06-12T08:58:00.000-10:002023-06-12T08:58:15.421-10:00Why does smooth pāhoehoe lava suddenly change to crystal-filled ‘a’ā lava? A new theory.<p> When water flows down a gradual stream over a generally flat
bottom, it’s clear and transparent, but when it hits a steep slope like rapids
and waterfalls, it turns white and frothy.</p><p>Still wet, but very different.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Similarly, newly-erupted molten volcanic rock flows smooth and sinuous as
pāhoehoe lava, and then sometimes changes to an entirely different look,
broken-up, chunky, rough ‘a’ā lava.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We know what’s causing the water to change—turbulence and
increased speed. But what’s happening with molten rock?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A team of Stanford researchers think they have an answer.
They are Cansu Culha, Sam Spinner and Jenny Suckale, and in May 2023 <i>Geophysical
Research Letters</i> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101302">published their theory under the title</a>, “The Yih
Instability in Layered Lava Flow May Initiate the Pāhoehoe to ‘a‘ā Lava
Transition.” <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">You find both kinds of lava at volcanoes everywhere there
are basalt-erupting volcanoes, whether the Hawaiian volcanoes or those erupting
through the snows of Iceland. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Most lava flows start as p<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ā</span>hoehoe, and then occasionally some
of them suddenly change form. Instead of flowing like water down a quiet river,
they change dramatically. You can even hear the change, as the ‘a’ā tinkles and
pings like broken glass as it tumbles rather than flows downslope. And ‘a’ā has
far more crystals in it.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The change in form, the authors write, is a big deal to
volcano scientists: “These fundamental differences in flow characteristics have
made understanding the transition a classic question in volcanology.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Others have suggested that turbulence may be a factor, that
if you stir up pāhoehoe, it will change to ‘a’ā. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But how does that happen? How does smooth, internally
blended lava change to rough crystalline lava? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The authors looked to the work of Chia-Shun Yih, who in 1967
wrote a seminal paper on fluid dynamics. Yih noted that when there are
different viscosities in a moving liquid—meaning they flow more or less easily—that
can cause instability in the fluid. That concept is now called Yih Instability.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">When a lava flow starts as p<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ā</span>hoehoe, over time, the surface
is exposed to cooler air and starts to harden. And so, soon, there is molten
rock flowing at different rates of speed within the same flow.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“A key assumption in our model is that pāhoehoe flows may
have internal layers,” the authors write.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And that difference between layers can cause instability, which
can provoke the change from smooth lava to rough chunky lava, they propose. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But it’s complicated. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Sometimes a change in speed can prompt ‘a’ā transformation,
like when pahoehoe flows over a cliff. But not always.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Sometimes just a fast-moving flow down a steep slope can prompt
the change. But not always.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And sometimes, a hardened surface appears to protect the
still-moving lava below from making the change. That might be what happens in a
lava tube—when the surface has hardened over, and the pahoehoe lava beneath can flow long and fast without the internal viscosity layers.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">With K<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ī</span>lauea erupting again, the new suggestions provide volcano
scientists with new ways of looking at what’s going on.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If you’re interested in a less complex review of the data
than is in the <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i> piece, Maya Wei-Hass <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/lava-comes-two-flavors-scientists-may-have-finally-figured-out-why?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyLatestNews&utm_content=alert&et_rid=17437078&et_cid=4767680">has a review</a> in the journal <i>Science</i>, under the title “Lava comes in two flavors…”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-31911736377952559792023-05-29T09:22:00.001-10:002023-05-29T09:22:21.838-10:00Hawai'i ocean levels inches below normal--what's going on?<p> Sea levels around Hawai’i are unusually low, and have been
for some months.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Experts aren’t sure why. They <i>are</i> pretty sure they’ll
come back to normal, and higher. But because they’re not sure precisely why,
they also can’t be sure when.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">My canoe paddling clan in recent month has noticed that low
tides have seemed really low. Like, mud flats where there’s normally water. Others may be seeing reefs where there's normally water. And seeing beaches bigger than they were last year.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">To figure this out, I called Chip Fletcher, who didn’t know,
but knew who would. Fletcher is the interim dean at the University of Hawai’i Mānoa
School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology. He’s the go-to guy on
impacts of sea level rise in the Islands.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">He suggested calling the university’s Sea Level Center,
where associate director Matthew Widlandsky confirmed what we’d been seeing.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“You are right about the sea levels this year around Hawaii
being lower than in recent years,” he wrote.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But while he and his colleagues have a theory about the
reasons, nobody’s actually gone out and done the work to prove them. “We have not yet studied this event in detail,” Widlansky
said.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One theory is that it’s associated with cooler water in the central
Pacific, in connection with our just-ended three-year La Niña. Cooler water is
denser, meaning it takes up less volume. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One of the several drivers of sea level <i>rise</i> is warmer water
expanding, and this would be the reverse, a temporary situation in which cool water
contracts.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But there might be more to it than just that.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We’ve experienced this kind of condition before in connection
with El Niño (warm conditions) and La Niña (cooler conditions) climate cycles.
A study in 2020 reviewed a 2017 period when we were having super-high tides.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Widlansky was a co-author of <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/8/jcli-d-19-0221.1.xml">an article on that study</a>,
published in the Journal of Climate. Other authors were Xiaoyu Long, Fabian
Schloesser, Philip R. Thompson, H. Annamalai, Mark A. Merrifield and Hyang Yoon.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Hawaii experienced record-high sea levels during 2017,
which followed the 2015 strong El Niño and coincided with weak trade winds in
the tropical northeastern Pacific,” the authors wrote.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“During August 2017, the Honolulu Harbor tide gauge recorded
the highest monthly average water level since records began in 1905.” That record was 17 centimeters, or more than half a foot higher than expected.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That said, high sea levels don’t always follow strong El
Niño events, and didn’t after the strong 1997 event. So there’s something else also going on. Maybe winds. Maybe other stuff.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“The processes controlling whether Hawaii sea levels rise
after El Niño have so far remained unknown,” they wrote. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In 2017, "the high sea levels were caused by the superposition, or
stacking, of multiple contributions.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The high sea levels associated with the 2015 strong El Niño
lasted from 2016 until the end of summer in 2017, and then tapered off.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The current low water is just a couple of inches lower than normal, and it's different in different locations. </p><p class="MsoNormal">It is not clear how long the current low stand of Hawaiian
water will last. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-10225788330344289292023-05-20T10:14:00.004-10:002023-05-20T10:14:57.023-10:00Gray-backed tern returns to Palmyra Atoll<p> The Nature Conservancy has attracted gray-backed terns back to Palmyra Atoll after they were lost to the island, likely due to rat predation.</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYD2YaEjJbNG7-YA9DblntBUhqlvAeAkc6VdZ8oHq7kJW2GdP-firkb5lVBkOGMbJp2orZpONPADtRkLRZxQnpImfCM34U83irmKRilJkVczTvCafreqnT2o7EyzUgDFgJWoe_WHRL38T6_pRl7fwwhCMpe5a1okiBgJ1ueELLYhz5tmLqYjvvvzc3" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYD2YaEjJbNG7-YA9DblntBUhqlvAeAkc6VdZ8oHq7kJW2GdP-firkb5lVBkOGMbJp2orZpONPADtRkLRZxQnpImfCM34U83irmKRilJkVczTvCafreqnT2o7EyzUgDFgJWoe_WHRL38T6_pRl7fwwhCMpe5a1okiBgJ1ueELLYhz5tmLqYjvvvzc3" width="320" /></a></div><div>(Image: Gray-backed tern chick. Credit: The Nature Conservancy.)</div><div><br /></div>Researchers used wooden decoys and recorded bird calls to try to convince the terns--and seven other seabird species--to land and to nest on Palmyra. A single gray-backed tern was raised on this island this season, the first in recent memory.<div><br /><div><span style="font-family: times;">Gray-backed terns, formerly <i>Ste</i></span><span style="font-family: times;"><i>rna luna</i></span><span style="font-family: times;"><i>ta</i> and recently recategorized <i>Onychoprion lunata</i>, are p</span><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-family: times; font-size: 16px;">ākalakala in Hawaiian. They are one of eight seabirds known to the part of the ocean that contains Palmyra, but which have not been found nesting there in recent years. They likely were preyed on and their breeding colonies removed by rats that came during World War II.</span><div><p><span style="font-family: times;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;">Rats were eradicated from the island in 2011. In 2020, The Nature Conservancy began trying to call the missing seabirds back to the island with loudspeakers playing recorded nesting calls, and with wooden bird decoys. These techniques have successfully called in birds in other projects.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: times;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;">Gray-backed terns are the first to respond.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: times;"><span style="background-color: white;">These birds are speckled as chicks--as shown in the photo above--but as adults they have white bottomsides, gray backs, and a black head with a white stripe over the eye. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: times;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;">Palmyra Atoll, roughly 900 miles south of Hawai'i, is jointly managed by The Nature Conservancy and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">© Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: times;"><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p><p><span class="yiv4772281688ContentPasted0" style="background-color: white; color: #242424; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; outline: none;"> </span></p><p class="yiv4772281688MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in; outline: none;"><br /></p></div></div></div>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-14268882663418174732023-03-21T16:03:00.001-10:002023-03-21T16:03:13.628-10:00I guess it's possible to be optimistic about the new IPCC report, and some are. I'm not.<p class="MsoNormal">The newest United Nations report on planetary climate, different
from previous cautious reports, minces few words. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Things are getting worse, and
faster than ever, and we have no time left to act. Paraphrasing Yoda, it's time to do something; simply trying is not an option.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“The report is a full-throated call for the massive—yet
doable—changes our species must enact to limit the damage that comes with each
fraction of a degree of warming,” <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/the-climate-report-that-foretells-humanitys-future/">said Wired</a>, the online magazine. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There is now more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, 410 parts
per million, than in the past 2 million years—that’s before there were humans
on our planet. No other period in the past 2,000 years has seen climate warming
as fast as in the past 50 years.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The impacts of these changes have been seriously inequitable.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2023 report says the people least
responsible for the change are suffering the most.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean,
cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. Human-caused climate change is already
affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe.
This has led to widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to
nature and people. Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the
least to current climate change are disproportionately affected,” the report
said in its summary for policymakers. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">You can find the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">actual report summary and various associated documents here</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nearly half the world’s population is vulnerable and at risk
of climate change disruptions, from coastal inundation, storms, flooding,
drought, food and water shortages, and related issues. That risk is playing
out now, and continues to increase.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Between 2010 and 2020, human mortality from floods, droughts
and storms was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to
regions with very low vulnerability,” the report said.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The already-observed changes include water shortages, crop
failures, livestock health problems, reduced fishery yields, malnutrition,
infectious diseases, community displacement, and immense impacts on ecosystems.
The report cites throughout how much faith it has in its observations.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Climate change has caused substantial damages, and
increasingly irreversible losses, in terrestrial, freshwater, cryospheric, and
coastal and open ocean ecosystems (<i>high confidence</i>). Hundreds of local losses
of species have been driven by increases in the magnitude of heat extremes
(<i>high confidence</i>) with mass mortality events recorded on land and in the ocean
(<i>very high confidence</i>). Impacts on some ecosystems are approaching irreversibility
such as the impacts of hydrological changes resulting from the retreat of
glaciers, or the changes in some mountain (<i>medium confidence</i>) and Arctic
ecosystems driven by permafrost thaw (<i>high confidence</i>.)”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As we move along in time, it gets worse. “Every increment of
global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There are two primary options: Mitigation, or doing
something about it; and adaptation, or learning to live with it.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The report says we have the technology to mitigate, to turn
things around. But it would take severe and dramatic action. We do not seem to
be willing as a planet to do what’s necessary.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around
two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a
few years.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But we are not spending enough money on it, and not
committing enough of our policy initiatives to it.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So what about adapting? Realistically, even with drastic
action, things would get worse before the arrow of livability starts to turn
upward. So some adaption will be required anyway.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Clearly the poorest among us will be hit soonest and
hardest, and they will have the fewest opportunities to adapt. The wealthier
communities will be able to adapt, to a degree. But increasing climate change
will threaten even their adaptation options.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Adaptation options that are feasible and effective today
will become constrained and less effective with increasing global warming. With
increasing global warming, losses and damages will increase and additional
human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits,” the report said.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">To avoid catastrophe, the report says, the world needs
immediate and severe cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. To limit the worst
impacts in the coming few decades, emissions need to be driven to near zero.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But policies currently in place don’t do that. If anything,
they leave emissions flat, meaning the situation continues to get worse. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This is the frustration. We can do it. We must do it. But it is not clear we will do it.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">What are the odds that this particular planet can galvanize
its systems to do what the IPCC says is required? Here is the IPCC’s vision:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Effective climate action is enabled by political
commitment, well-aligned multilevel governance, institutional frameworks, laws,
policies and strategies and enhanced access to finance and technology. Clear
goals, coordination across multiple policy domains, and inclusive governance
processes facilitate effective climate action. Regulatory and economic
instruments can support deep emissions reductions and climate resilience if
scaled up and applied widely. Climate resilient development benefits from
drawing on diverse knowledge.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Lots of media reports—ignoring the essence of the report—are
all about the upside: “We can fix this! Yes, we can!” <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal">The Christian Science Monitor takes the middle path, noting
that the IPCC “walks a fine line between desperation and hope in an effort to
spur a more forceful global response.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Some publications get lost in the weeds. CNBC decided to focus on reflecting the sun's light and heat back into space. Others wondered whether carbon capture technology is ready for prime time. </p><p class="MsoNormal">All the while ignoring the elephant in the room--we need to stop burning oil and coal.</p><p class="MsoNormal">So, the thinking goes, maybe we can do these interesting techie things, and keep on burning coal in power plants and gasoline in our big luxury cars. And everything will be just fine.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That, of course, is dithering. And while dithering, perhaps we can ponder this: <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">How much misery are we willing to subject our grandchildren
and their grandchildren to, to keep living the way we are living?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><p>© Jan TenBruggencate 2023 </p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-70216401769748948592023-03-10T10:25:00.004-10:002023-03-10T10:25:23.570-10:00Climate shifts further: La Niño is over, El Niño coming by summer<p>The La Nina oceanic condition, which we’ve been in for many
months, has ended, and an El Nino appears likely to form in the summer or fall.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That’s the <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">latest prediction</a> from the Climate Prediction
Center: <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It builds on the report we filed last month, when we
suggested a fair chance of El Nino by mid year. That fair chance now seems to
have been elevated to a pretty good chance. Spring predictions tend to be
problematic, but most models see us going that way. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Thus the La Nina cool phase of Central Pacific climate is behind
us, and we are in something called ENSO-neutral, ENSO being the term for the
whole warm-cold cycle, El Niño Southern Oscillation.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Most climate prediction models now
suggest we should shift into El Niño during the summer, and it might happen
pretty quickly: “it is possible that strong warming near South America may
portend a more rapid evolution toward El Niño.”</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One of the things that can mean for Hawai’i is that we are
likely to have a more active hurricane season. Also some other changes. More on that a little further down.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But one the questions that still challenges climate researchers
is where climate change is taking the ENSO pattern broadly. There’s some suggestion
that the past 40 years—since 1980—have been a little cooler than expected, a little more La
Niña.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Now, many researchers say their models suggest the next few
decades may swing toward more active El Niño conditions. But they don’t fully
trust those models: the computer climate models of past climate don’t match up
real will with actual observations of the climate. So how to be sure? A whole
lot of smart people are working hard to make sense of that. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A discussion on this can be found at<a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/how-pattern-trends-across-tropical-pacific-ocean-critical-understanding-future"> the ENSO blog</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Among the variables: Warmer oceans can feed circulating
storms, but warmer oceans and changing wind conditions can also cause changes
in deep ocean upwellings. If they bring cool water to the surface from the deep
ocean, then that could reduce the energy available to circulating storms like
hurricanes. Changes in cloud cover could also create cooler surface conditions.
And there are other variables. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Heroic efforts are being done at modeling centers around
the world to improve the representation of the physical processes,” wrote Kris
Karnauskas, of the University of Colorado-Boulder.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That’s the long term.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For the coming year, what does an El Niño mean for us? There’s
a<a href="https://www.pacificrisa.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Pacific-Region-EL-NINO-Fact-Sheet_Hawaii_2015-FINAL.pdf"> nice NOAA fact sheet</a> here. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It suggests wetter weather at first, in late summer and fall,
then drier. Maybe a dry winter this year. Weaker trade winds. More hurricanes
and tropical storms. Warmer water around the Islands.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And sea levels slightly higher than normal, meaning big
storm surf will reach farther inland. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">All in all, interesting times.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-13216427995541637732023-02-24T07:56:00.002-10:002023-02-24T08:08:57.796-10:00The international enigma, a baffling sphere on Japan beach, would be no mystery to Hawai'i beachgoers<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgzGrtH-46hWF_aYa5NyEwRPoDRu0_eOU4O0R4pRVJo0APdXYWJ6wNcuSKme4f1nZ9hqSY8nSPbrlp7hqAnJtnFq6rOjoIiegA0yt-5vfmCcHGkT0EwcvlIAUG2T6aKRNunQ_Mjj57PN3vNb__pa_ot9JeeH5YqCzqGgVoJeD7y6UkATlb2_vv1ZC27" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1440" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgzGrtH-46hWF_aYa5NyEwRPoDRu0_eOU4O0R4pRVJo0APdXYWJ6wNcuSKme4f1nZ9hqSY8nSPbrlp7hqAnJtnFq6rOjoIiegA0yt-5vfmCcHGkT0EwcvlIAUG2T6aKRNunQ_Mjj57PN3vNb__pa_ot9JeeH5YqCzqGgVoJeD7y6UkATlb2_vv1ZC27" width="320" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal">(<i>Image: Fuji News Network image of the globally baffling sphere on Hamamatsu City beach.</i>)</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal">A UFO. A dragon egg. A communist plot. Another spy balloon.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Wow.</p><p class="MsoNormal">International media report they’re baffled by a mysterious
metal sphere that washed up on a Japan beach.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It wouldn’t be baffling to any Hawai’i beachgoer, because we
see them all the time. They wash up regularly, sometimes painted orange or
yellow, but most often covered with brown-red rust. Big, hollow (or
occasionally foam-filled) steel spheres used in various maritime activities.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The sphere in question, 4-5 feet in diameter, washed up on a
long stretch of sand off Hamamatsu City. It caused great consternation, locally
and internationally. It was isolated with yellow caution tape. Authorities
subjected it to tests to determine it was empty. Eventually they hauled it off
the beach and disposed of it.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And international media had fun with it. Perhaps because,
after the Chinese balloon and the “pico” balloons shot down over Alaska, Canada
and Lake Huron, we were primed for stories about weird round things.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Guardian <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/22/mysterious-metal-iron-ball-sphere-beach-japan-officials-investigate">breathlessly wondered</a> whether it was a “Spy
Balloon, UFO or Dragon Ball” or maybe even a stray mine. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Nope.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The BBC <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64730255">called it</a> a “mystery sphere” and said Japan was
perplexed, with some folks calling it a “Godzilla egg.” <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Oh my. But, nope.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The British media network Unilad <a href="https://www.unilad.com/news/japan-beach-mysterious-ball-washed-up-068602-20230222">suggested</a> some folks
thought it was a devious device sent by China or North Korea. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Uh, uh.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The India Times <a href="https://www.indiatimes.com/trending/wtf/truth-behind-metal-sphere-found-in-enshuhama-beach-japan-594121.html Yep.">reported</a> that February 23, 2023, Japanese authorities
confirmed it was “marine equipment” that had washed ashore. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">They wash up periodically on Hawaiian beaches, too. They are
industrial buoys, used by maritime industries for various purposes. One popular
purpose in Hawai’i is as floats for FADs or fish aggregating devices. They are
also used as moorings for ships, with one end chained to an anchor and the
other tied to the boat. They are sometimes used to support oceanographic monitoring equipment.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">And occasionally they break free and end up as marine debris on beaches.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">You can <a href="https://blueoceanmarineequipment.com/marine-supply-equipment/buoys-fenders/steel-buoys/">buy them</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And they <a href="https://watermansupply.com/buoys/">don’t always come as spheres</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Many, like the Hamamatsu City sphere, have <a href="https://dcl-usa.com/58-spherical-buoys/">connection points at both ends</a>. </p><p class="MsoNormal">© Jan TenBruggencate 2023</p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-46876138615910220322023-02-22T12:05:00.003-10:002023-02-22T12:05:24.882-10:00Wrapping up the shot-down balloons story: Yes, balloons can crash planes<p> We may not learn a whole lot more about the four objects
shot down during February 2023 by American jets, other than they appeared to all be
balloons carrying some sort of payload.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The first was a Chinese-owned giant balloon that drifted
across North America from Alaska to North Carolina, where it was shot down February
4 after it passed the coast into the Atlantic. As best we know, it had
surveillance equipment on board, multiple antennas, and presumably the capacity
to track and report on U.S. communications. </p><p class="MsoNormal">U.S. intelligence <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinese-spy-balloon-us-intelligence-tracked-it-soon-after-liftoff-course/">agencies tracked it</a> from takeoff in south China, all the way to its downing off the Carolinas. We
assume that we were able to gather significant intelligence from it while it
operated, and more after most of it was recovered from the Atlantic. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Three more balloons were shot down over the coastal ice in
Alaska February 10, the forests of the Yukon in Canada February 11 and over the
waters of Lake Huron February 12.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">News reports indicate all three of them were most likely very
small “pico balloons,” which are much smaller than the Chinese balloon, hard to
track on radar, and which normally carry miniature payloads. One standard for
these balloons is to carry transceivers that allow ham radio operators to
communicate with them, or to transmit messages to them to be retransmitted to
other radio operators.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">None of the three small balloons was recovered, but an
Illinois radio and balloon hobbyist group said the Canadian object was probably
theirs. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade <a href="https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf">said</a> it
might have been one of their mylar balloons, with the call sign K9Y0. It had
been up for half a year, and had circled the globe nearly seven times. They don’t
know for sure that the Yukon object, but they said it stopped transmitting
about the time of the reported destruction of an object by a U.S. Fighter’s
rocket. Aviation Week reported on it here. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There may be dozens of similar balloons orbiting our planet
at any time, on top of the weather balloons, corporate spy balloons, hot air balloons,
party balloons, and nations’ spy balloons. In all, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-were-suddenly-spotting-spy-balloons/">this Scientific American article</a> says there may be hundreds to thousands up over the U.S. at any given
time. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Some have radio transponders so aircraft can detect them,
some are reflective so they show up clearly on radar, but some are ghostly hard
to detect, yet still dangerous to an aircraft that might suck one into its
engine or around its control surfaces.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">While plane-balloon interactions are rare, they have
occurred. Most result in only minor damage to the plane, as when this Air
Canada flight took out a weather balloon in 2019. https://simpleflying.com/air-canada-weather-ballon-collision.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But some have caused crashes. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Forty-five people were killed in a 1970s <a href="https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=19700401-0">Russian crash</a> after
a propellor plane hit a weather balloon. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In California in 1994, a twin-engine Piper Comanche <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1994-09-22-me-41720-story.html">went down</a>, killing its pilot, after it apparently hit party balloons. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In 2007 a Cessna<a href="https://www.aopa.org/training-and-safety/air-safety-institute/accident-analysis/featured-accidents/airship-tether-severs-cessna-wing-killing-three"> lost a wing</a> after hitting the tether line
for an inflatable airship. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And there are near misses, as when<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10985575/Pictured-Moment-passenger-jet-dodge-drifting-balloon-mid-air-avoid-tragic-accident.html"> this Qatar Airlines Boeing jet</a> managed to dodge a large balloon over Brazil last year. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-18833621834141441772023-02-13T08:47:00.003-10:002023-02-13T08:47:29.993-10:00Maybe alien, maybe not balloons, speculation rampant about the mysterious shot down objects<p> (Image: U.S. Navy assault craft working on the recovery of debris from the Chinese balloon shot down over South Carolina February 4. Credit: U.S. Navy.)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJmEknLsCHNCkzX4Cujb61EZ6DVn86o5Xn6eTv4T0OfnuR9wwrNVLGydR74y0CiwAEF9c75b3d39EjXBCwfpjbq7Tp12jw7EduqMTBqIPPn2qFwAGkcQz-mfofT4TIvP-IFOImCfyVvQnX1Z5kHCPKKQvorLCUtrbl09V-VJN6uVrSp_rIrGxa7go7" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="1000" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJmEknLsCHNCkzX4Cujb61EZ6DVn86o5Xn6eTv4T0OfnuR9wwrNVLGydR74y0CiwAEF9c75b3d39EjXBCwfpjbq7Tp12jw7EduqMTBqIPPn2qFwAGkcQz-mfofT4TIvP-IFOImCfyVvQnX1Z5kHCPKKQvorLCUtrbl09V-VJN6uVrSp_rIrGxa7go7" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>Everything about the mystery objects we’ve been shooting
down remains in limbo—partly because we and the Canadians have not completed
operations to recover them.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Some American officials say it’s a step too far to suggest
they are alien craft from extraterrestrial sources. Others won’t rule that out.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But we won’t have clear indications until we can actually
inspect the wreckage. Until then, it’s all Area 51-type speculation.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Much of the February 4 Chinese balloon debris is still
reportedly off South Carolina in 50 feet of water. The item shot down February
10 over Alaskan sea ice hasn’t been recovered because of harsh Arctic winter
weather. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police are working to get at the debris of
the February 11 shoot-down in wild country in the Yukon. And American forces are
still trying to get at the debris of the February 12 object, which reportedly
fell into Lake Huron in the American/Canadian Great Lakes.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Increasingly, descriptions of these devices are bizarre. One
thing that seems clear is that they are very different. Early reports suggest
they might not even all be balloons, although that’s what Senate Majority Leader
Charles Schumer believes they are, according to <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-02-12/sen-schumer-says-2-downed-objects-believed-to-be-balloons">a Los Angeles Times report</a>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">They are clearly different things. They fly differently.
They look different.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Chinese balloon drifted at 60,000 feet. The Alaskan and
Yukon objects at 40,000 feet, and the Lake Huron object at 20,000 feet.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Descriptions vary. The Chinese balloon appeared spherical
and as big as three buses. The Alaskan balloon was the size of a small car. The
Yukon object was cylindrical. The Lake Huron object octagonal with strings
hanging down.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In descriptions, caution has sometimes veered into the
implausible, as when Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, the commander of the Air Force’s
Northern Command, was asked if they might be from outside our planet. He said,
“I haven’t ruled out anything at this point.” Other Administration officials
said there’s no indication of anything from outside the Earth being involved.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It makes the most sense that these would all be
lighter-than-air balloons of some kind, but <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64620064">VanHerck in a CNN story</a> said,
essentially, not so fast.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">"I'm not going to categorise them as balloons. We're
calling them objects for a reason… What we are seeing is very, very small
objects that produce a very, very low radar cross-section," he said. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64620064">In a CNN report,</a> the government also expressed caution about
assuming the Alaskan, Canadian and Great Lakes objects are balloons: "These
objects did not closely resemble, and were much smaller than, the [4 February]
balloon and we will not definitively characterise them until we can recover the
debris," CNN reported, citing a White House National Security spokesperson. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So, what? Drones? If so, how can they stay aloft for periods
long enough to be drifting slowly over hours and days?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">China sought to put some perspective into the discussions,
saying the United States does a lot of its own balloon work. In an Associated
Press article, Wang Wenbin, an official of China’s foreign ministry, said “It
is also common for U.S. balloons to illegally enter the airspace of other
countries… Since last year, U.S. high-altitude balloons have illegally flown
over China’s airspace more than 10 times without the approval of Chinese
authorities.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That suggests the possibility that some of the high altitude
objects we’re seeing could be our own vehicles, perhaps drifting post-mission.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But the one thing we know is that the Chinese balloon downed
off South Carolina was Chinese, as China has confirmed that. And initial indications are that there was
American technology in its electronics package. And in response to that, the
U.S. has prevented six Chinese aerospace firms from using American technology
without U.S. approval.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In a<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/13/china-spy-balloon-us-surveillance/"> Washington Post report</a>, the White House suggested China
continues to downplay its own actual intrusions into the airspace of other
nations.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“This is the latest example of China scrambling to do damage
control. It has repeatedly and wrongly claimed the surveillance balloon it sent
over the United States was a weather balloon and to this day has failed to
offer any credible explanations for its intrusion into our airspace and the
airspace of others,” said White House spokeswoman Adrienne Watson. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">China says its balloon was collecting atmospheric data, not spying
on the land below. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And meanwhile, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/13/china/china-unidentified-flying-object-intl-hnk-mic/index.html">China was reporting</a> that it was getting ready
to shoot down some kind of flying or drifting object over its own territory. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Local maritime authorities in East China's Shandong
Province announced on Sunday that they had spotted an unidentified flying
object in waters near the coastal city of Rizhao in the province and were
preparing to shoot it down, reminding fishermen to be safe via messages,” <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/02/12/china-says-its-preparing-to-shoot-down-unidentified-flying-object-near-yellow-sea/?sh=7e3d34616e87">wrote Forbes</a>, citing China’s state-controlled Global Times.<o:p></o:p></p>
<br />
<p class="MsoNormal">China urged its fishermen to be alert, and to take photos of
any debris that lands nearby.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-71510249516760128212023-02-12T09:35:00.004-10:002023-02-12T11:17:39.864-10:00A fourth high altitude object shot down, this one over Lake Huron. This is just bizarre.<p>Is there something new and strange and scary going on in our
atmosphere, or are we just hyperalert to stuff that’s been there all along?</p><p>Maybe we're now seeing it largely because we're now looking for it. And because we've only recently developed the technology to track it electronically. <a href="China spy balloon: US developed method to track balloon fleet within the last year, sources say | CNN Politics">CNN reported</a> that we've only been able to do do so for the past year. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">After two objects were shot down over Alaska Friday and the
Yukon Saturday, the airspace over Montana was closed late Saturday due to a radar
signal of something that could not be confirmed by jet, and then today, Sunday,
the airspace over Lake Michigan was temporarily closed “for national security reasons.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Then, minutes before this writing, the military shot down an object over Lake Huron. It is not clear whether that is the same object that caused the airspace closure over Lake Michigan or something else. Lake Huron is just east of Lake Michigan.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We have so little information that it’s difficult to know
what to make of all this. But it’s certainly not all a bunch of weather balloons,
as some have suggested. That said, it might be a whole lot of different lighter-than-air craft sent aloft by governments, corporations and even individuals.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It has been reported that the “objects” over Alaska and
Canada were smaller and different from the Chinese spy balloon shot down off South Carolina a week earlier.
That balloon was big and roughly spherical. The Alaskan object was much smaller, did not look like the Chinese balloon and maybe didn’t have intelligence-gathering equipment. The Canadian defense
minister said the Canadian object was cylindrical, and one pilot said it had
the capacity to interfere with his navigational equipment. Another pilot
noticed nothing like that. </p><p class="MsoNormal">We have no information about the object shot down over Lake Huron. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Jets scrambled over Montana late Saturday could find nothing
at the site of a “radar anomaly” that prompted a short closure of Montana airspace to
civilian aircraft. As this is written, we know nothing about what prompted the
Lake Michigan airspace closure today (February 12, 2023.) That airspace closure was ended after a
few hours. Shortly afterward, the Lake Huron object came down.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There seem to be fleets of Chinese intelligence-gathering
balloons drifting in our skies, and over the skies of dozens of nations. Four months ago, the Pentagon said, a Chinese
spy balloon crashed somewhere near Hawai’i, but we don’t know whether anything
was recovered from it. At the same time the Chinese balloon was drifting across
America two weeks ago, another was floating over Central America. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">China says they’re just weather balloons, but if so, they
are big, expensive weather balloons. The one shot down two weeks ago had a
massive solar panel array hanging under it. That would power a whole lot of
electronics.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">(I have personally recovered weather balloon electronics, which are tiny--little styrofoam boxes the size of a pocket transistor radio. That's not what was hanging from the Chinese spy balloon.)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Every major country uses weather balloons, and some—like China, the United Kingdom and the United States—use spy balloons. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And then there are also private company balloons, like the
ones that raised concerns off Hawai’i a year ago, which were aeronautical
balloons developed by a South Dakota firm called <a href="https://ravenaerostar.com/">Raven Aerostar</a>. They had been
launched from South Dakota and had been aloft for several months. Raven Aerostar said those balloons were designed to carry
electronics that could provide internet service to remote areas, could collect
imagery and perform other functions.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Raven Aerostar website provides some insight into ALL
the different lighter-than-air vehicles that are available. They include
Thunderhead Balloon Systems for long-duration flights. And Super Pressure
Balloons for stratospheric missions. And Zero Pressure Balloons that take
payloads to “the edge of space.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
Sounding Balloons for short duration meteorological missions. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And there are Raven’s Stratospheric Airships, which look
more like giant blimps than balloons. They are capable of operating at 60,000
to 70,000 feet and can stay up for months. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Those are different from dirigibles, which are maneuverable
lighter-than-air craft. There are also hot air balloons, which have been a “thing”
since the 1700s.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Google/Alphabet in 2021 <a href="Alphabet shuts down Loon internet balloon company | TechCrunch">shut down its Loon program</a>, which proposed using balloons to provide internet service to remote areas. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Lots of stuff drifting across the skies. As mentioned above, there is indication
that the United States within the past year or so has increased its capacity to
identify these low-speed, high-flying devices. That could be why we’re suddenly
seeing more detections. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-84003658323540978192023-02-11T15:10:00.009-10:002023-02-11T15:10:45.309-10:00UFOs (now UAPs) getting shot down left and right--what the heck is going on? <p>The three UFOs shot down in the past couple of weeks are
hardly alone—the military is reporting that UFO sightings are now running in
the hundreds per year.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">What the heck is going on?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">We've seen strange objects off Hawai'i, and the Air Force has scrambled to check them out. There have been a couple of U.S. corporate balloons, and a Chinese balloon. So far, we haven't shot any down off Hawai'i (as far as wel know.) But policies seem to be changing, particularly when these things appear in skies occupied by passenger aircraft. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The Chinese spy balloon we shot down two weeks ago already seems fairly mundane in view the
bigger story. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Now we've shot down an unidentified, unmanned object over northern Alaska. And today, another was shot down over the central Yukon in Canada.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The Canadian Minister of National Defense, Anita Anand, reported
that the item shot down over Canada today was cylindrical in shape—that
doesn’t sound like a balloon. It was flying at 40,000 feet, the same elevation
as the object shot down the day before over Alaska.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">This year, we have learned of hundreds more UFOs (now called
UAPs) being identified over our skies, many by trained military pilots.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">“Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) reporting is increasing,”
said <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Unclassified-2022-Annual-Report-UAP.pdf">an unclassified report </a>from the federal administration to Congress last month.
The Director of National Intelligence issued the report under the title, “2022
Annual Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena.” <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Some of the things they’re seeing in our skies are understandable.
Weather balloons and such. Some are being found in interesting places,
including high security places. There is probably some bias in the data, because
there would naturally be a lot more eyes in the sky in such places, but there
sure seems to be something else going on, too.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Some of the objects have characteristics of spying activity: “UAP
events continue to occur in restricted or sensitive airspace, highlighting
possible concerns for safety of flight or adversary collection activity,” that
report said.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">The U.S. military is taking that seriously, having established
the Department of Defense (DoD) All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO.)
Its goal—Figure out what’s going on. It will link military and intelligence
branches of the U.S. government, to work together “against the UAP problem set.”
<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Canada’s Anand reported today that Canada plans to dramatically
increase its own capacity to respond to aerial threats. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">There are lots of problems with figuring out UFO/UAP
identities, including distance, weather, bad lighting, and confusing sensor
data. And due to such issues, some assessments are simply wrong: “a select number
of UAP incidents may be attributable to sensor irregularities or variances,
such as operator or equipment error.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">But not all of them. Of 366 new reports studied by AARO in
less than a year, the organization preliminarily concluded that 26 were some
kind of unmanned aircraft, 163 were balloons or objects like balloons (one
presumes things like blimps), and six were dismissed as clutter. But that left
171 uncharacterized, and some of them had spooky behavior.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">“Some of these uncharacterized UAP appear to have
demonstrated unusual flight characteristics or performance capabilities, and
require further analysis.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">There was one report that the Yukon UAP may have been interfering with a military jet's sensors. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Stay tuned. Ufology is suddenly top of mind, has moved
clear of the woo-woo set, and is being treated as a significant threat by the U.S as well as Canada.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">© Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p><p>
</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-66214041482187732202023-02-11T11:24:00.000-10:002023-02-11T11:24:00.062-10:00Have we already seen peak humpback whale populations? Maybe.<p> Long-time Hawai’i residents have seen the remarkable increase
in humpback whale numbers since the 1960s, but that increase could be over.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Whale numbers dropped catastrophically in the middle of the
last decade, and there are suggestions that climate changes mean we may have already
seen peak whale numbers. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Although whales are impacted by lots of things,
including entanglement with marine debris, swallowing marine debris, overfishing
of prey resources and other issues, the key threat may be reduced food availability associated
with a warming climate.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A little background.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The numbers of humpback whales got so low that the
International Whaling Commission banned humpback hunting in 1966, although a couple of countries continued hunting them for several more years. They were
placed on the Endangered Species List in 1970. </p><p class="MsoNormal">In 1992, the Hawaiian Islands
Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary was established to add protection to
the Hawaiian Islands breeding grounds for the central North Pacific population of humpbacks. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Today, there are close to 100,000 humpbacks alive globally,
living in 14 identified breeding groups that do not often interbreed. At the
peak population, before whaling, there may have been 125,000 to 150,000. <a href=" https://www.science.org/content/article/some-humpback-whales-may-lose-endangered-status#:~:text=Indeed%2C%20the%20humpback%20numbers%20were,whaling%20of%20all%20whale%20species.">See this source.</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Around Hawai’i, at their lowest, in about 1965, there were
only a few hundred animals. Hawai’i residents back then would spot an occasional spout,
but nothing like the great shows of spouting and slapping and leaping that we
see commonly today. Today the Hawai’i humpback whales number about 12,000 in
the Islands. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The animals summer in their feeding grounds off Alaska,
where they feed on the huge schools of small fish and krill, a shrimp-like
creature. The whales that come to the Hawaiian Islands winter in shallow
coastal waters, where they give birth, mate, and feed their young, but do not
eat much. They rely on the fat stores from all that krill they have eaten
during the summers up north.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But after decades of increase from their low numbers in the
1960s, the whale numbers stumbled 10 years ago, particularly from 2015 to 2016.
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Numbers then declined, including a precipitous 60% drop
between 2015 and 2016,” <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/mms.12856">wrote Adam Frankel, Christine Gabriele, Susanne Yin and Susan Rickards</a>, of the Hawai’i Marine Mammal Consortium in Kamuela.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It seemed to have been linked to warming waters in the feeding
grounds. An extended warm period described as “the largest marine heatwave
event ever recorded in the Northeast Pacific Ocean” started in late 2013. It
caused serious disruption to the ocean ecosystem. These authors didn’t know exactly
how that impacted whales, but they suggested that the temperature changes impacted the food
web, reducing humpback feeding success. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">They are not alone. The authors of<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42991-021-00187-2"> this 2022 paper</a> said that
North Pacific Heat Wave was associated with fewer surviving female whales, fewer
calves, and a lower survival among those calves that were born.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Calf survival dropped tenfold,” the authors said, and older
animals also were impacted. They said “documented changes to the forage fish
and zooplankton prey base” were the likely suspect.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Now, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.16559">a new paper</a> seems to confirm that hypothesis—although in
the Antarctic rather than the North Pacific. It was published last month in the
journal Global Change Biology, under the title “A surplus no more? Variation in
krill availability impacts reproductive rates of Antarctic Baleen Whales.” <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The authors found that “krill availability is in fact limiting
and affecting reproductive rates” and that humpbacks “may be at a threshold for
population growth.” They said similar issues are occurring with several species
of whales, as krill numbers decline in their traditional grounds, and some of
them move to different parts of the sea.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That heat wave of a decade ago ended. But researchers say
such heat waves have been increasing and are going to be happen more often. And that’s not good for the
humpback population.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against
a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves—discrete
periods of anomalously warm water—have intensified and become more frequent
over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally,”
wrote the authors of the <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-marine-032122-121437">2023 Annual Review of Marine Science</a>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">These marine heat waves, the authors write, “are emerging as
pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-26875660499613280492023-02-09T09:26:00.005-10:002023-02-09T12:06:19.831-10:00El Nino conditions on track to return after early summer<p> There continue to be good odds that oceanic conditions
will return to an El Nino state by mid-year, and that could portend a more active
hurricane season for the Hawaiian Islands.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The U.S. Climate Prediction Center, in <a href=" https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf">a paper issued today</a>
(February 9, 2023), said that the current La Nina is weak and continuing to weaken
in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Warmer waters are appearing in the western
Pacific and moving east. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The El Nino phenomenon is often called ENSO, for El Nino Southern
Oscillation. It is associated with movement of heat in ocean waters, changes in
winds, alterations in rainfall patterns and much more. It seems to cycle every
three to five years between El Nino, the warm phase, and La Nina, the cool phase,
which we’ve been for the last couple of years.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Within a couple of months, we are expected to transition out
of La Nina to ENSO neutral. That should continue until early summer. </p><p class="MsoNormal">After
that, not sure, but it’s starting to look like El Nino is in the cards, according
to the latest forecast:</p><p class="MsoNormal"> “There are increasing chances of El Niño at longer
forecast horizons, though uncertainty remains high because of the spring prediction
barrier, which typically is associated with lower forecast accuracy.” <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.weather.gov/media/peac/one_pagers/El%20Nino%20Impacts%20on%20Hawaii.pdf">Here is a</a> National Weather Service report on the specific impacts
of El Nino in Hawai’i. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Here is the progression of the El Nino/La Nina condition, as
reported on this blog: This from <a href="https://raisingislands.blogspot.com/2022/12/hurricane-season-2023-could-be-more.html">December</a> 2022. And this from <a href="https://raisingislands.blogspot.com/2022/12/hurricane-season-2023-could-be-more.html">January</a> 2023.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-3292813794598695762023-02-06T10:35:00.000-10:002023-02-06T10:35:07.882-10:00Surveillance balloons. There's THERE there, but some folks protest a little much<p> Lots of drama these days about surveillance balloons after a
China balloon sailed across our country and we shot it down.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And now there’s another China balloon over Latin America.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But a lot of the political furor over this is misplaced, or
at least uninformed.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There’s a lot to the balloons story, and it’s an old, old tale.
And to be clear, the United States has conducted balloon surveillance over both
the Soviet Union and China since right after World War II. Many of those were
shot down by the other guys. <a href="http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/app4/ws-119l.html">Here’s a technical report on that</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It continues to this day, and there are lots of folks
engaged in the inflatable wars.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A year ago, Hawai’i was in an uproar when a strange large
balloon was spotted drifting off North Kauai, and eventually continued on to O’ahu.
It was February 2022. Pacific Air Forces Public Affairs told me: "We are
actively monitoring it via joint capabilities and it is under evaluation. In
the event the unmanned balloon threatens the U.S. airspace or sovereignty or
fails to demonstrate due regard for safety of flight, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command
forces are postured to take necessary and appropriate actions in
response."<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It turned out it was one of two surveillance balloons
developed by a company called Raven Aerostar. They had been launched from South
Dakota and navigated to Hawaii by rising and falling to ride winds going in
selected directions. (Which raises the interesting questions of whether, if we
can control our balloons that well, the Chinese government is stretching the
truth when it says it had little control over the route of its balloons.)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Raven Aerostar’s Hawai’i balloons supposedly couldn’t image
the land below them, but <a href="https://aerostar.com/products/balloons-airships">they had others that could</a>, and were used for
surveillance and intelligence gathering by Google, NASA and the Air Force.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But we do a lot of our own balloon work here in Hawai’i,
including National Weather Service balloon launches. And big test balloons have
also gone up from the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Barking Sands, Kaua’i. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Most balloon surveillance is domestic. It is governments—including
ours—surveilling their own citizens or checking out the atmosphere for weather
reporting, but they are also used for military purposes—and have been for more
than 200 years since the French military established its air spying operations
in 1794. (And the Chinese were launching flame-powered floating lanterns 2,000
years ago, but that’s a different thing.)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We launch <a href="https://www.weather.gov/bmx/kidscorner_weatherballoons#:~:text=Weather%20balloons%20are%20the%20primary,storms%2C%20and%20data%20for%20research.">dozens of weather balloons</a> daily across the
country. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The U.S. Border Patrol <a href="https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-01-18/military-blimps-mexico-border-homeland-security-pentagon-4338532.html">has used blimps</a> to keep watch on the
U.S.-Mexico border. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Israel ten years ago <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/spy-balloons-give-jerusalem-police-an-eye-in-the-sky/">was using balloons</a>—they were being
called blimps—to allow police a bird’s eye view of domestic disturbances. <br /><br /><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Army calls <a href="https://www.army.mil/article/82551/Army_accepts_last_Persistent_Threat_Detection_System_aerostat/">its balloons system</a> the Persistent Threat
Detection System. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">China <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31279/chinas-new-surveillance-blimp-in-the-south-china-sea-is-likely-just-the-beginning">was using blimps</a> to conduct, one presumes, spying
operations in the South China Sea in 2019. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/world/asia/in-afghanistan-spy-balloons-now-part-of-landscape.html">used lighter-than-air devices extensively</a> in the
Afghanistan war. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Twenty years ago, Lockheed Martin <a href="https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/history/ptds.html">had this report</a> on balloons,
which they called aerostats: “Using aerostats for surveillance purposes has a
long history, from the use of hot-air balloons during the Civil War to the
recent deployment of tethered air vehicles to monitor drug-running activity in
the Caribbean.” </p><p class="MsoNormal">Both the Confederate and Union armies used balloons for
surveillance.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s not surprising that balloons are still being used in an
age of satellites and drones: they’re low tech, they’re way cheaper than
satellites, it doesn’t cost much if they get shot down or fail, and they stay
aloft far longer than any powered aircraft that might operate at similar
elevations—including drones.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So for folks with security clearances, whether in Congress
or current or past administrations, to say they knew nothing about this balloon
business. Well you might take that with a grain of salt. Or you might assume a
little political positioning.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-48294029492711651652023-02-03T17:33:00.005-10:002023-02-03T17:33:54.538-10:00Can sea level change promote volcanic activity in Hawai'i? This theory suggests it can.<p> There’s this odd thing about Hawaiian volcanic activity—secondary
volcanism.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This is the appearance of new eruptions long after the main
island-building volcanic activity is done. It is also called rejuvenated volcanism.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Think Diamond Head on O’ahu, Lehua Island off Ni’ihau, and all the cinder and tuff cones around Koloa on Kaua’i, which are clearly different-looking than
the landscape around them. And which date much, much younger than the lavas
around them.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Why does that new lava suddenly force its ways through
million-year-old rock? Traditionally, there are three theories, and rather than going through them here, you can <a href="Volcano Watch — The origin of rejuvenation-stage volcanism still poorly understood | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)">check out Volcano Watch</a>. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Now a team of geologists from Hawai’i, Wisconsin and the United
Kingdom have proposed an intriguing additional reason: dramatic sea level change.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The new report published by the Geological Society of
America was written by Brian R. Jicha of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Michael
O. Garcia of the University of Hawai’i, and Charline Lormand of Durham
University in the UK. It is entitled, “A possible sea-level fall trigger for
the youngest rejuvenated volcanism in Hawaiʻi.” <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">(<b>Citation</b>: Jicha, Brian R., Michael O. Garcia, and
Charline Lormand. "A possible sea-level fall trigger for the youngest
rejuvenated volcanism in Hawaiʻi." <i>GSA Bulletin</i> (2023).)<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Garcia makes the point that this is not an alternative but an additional theory, and that different rejuvenated volcanic activity might be associated with different mechanisms.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One of their key pieces of evidence, at volcanic hot spots around
the globe, is that when sea levels have fallen significantly, geological dating
shows that oceanic volcanoes have erupted in this kind of late stage volcanic activity.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">During a period 350,000 years ago, sea levels dropped 300
feet below current levels—and there were corresponding eruptions on Kaua’i,
Molokai and Ascension Island in the South Atlantic.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">When sea levels dropped about 200 feet about 225,000 years
ago, there was volcanic activity on Kaua’i.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">When they dropped nearly 300 feet 150,000 years ago,
volcanoes erupted on Kaua’i and in Samoa.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">When they dropped 300 feet about 60,000 years ago, there were
eruptions at Ascension Island, Fogo in the Cape Verde Islands, and on O’ahu. The O'ahu eruptions were at Tantalus on O’ahu and in a region called the Koko Rift.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i>(A caveat: Volcanoes don't always respond this way. There was another low sea level period about 25,000 years
ago, when Fogo, Samoa and Tristan de Cunha in the South Atlantic erupted, but Hawaiian
volcanoes apparently didn’t engage in rejuvenated volcanism. And there was an unusual Kaua’i eruption about 320,000 years ago when sea levels were comparatively high, which doesn’t follow the trend.)</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This kind of volcanic activity seems less likely to occur when
sea levels are high. But they do when it’s low. The theory is that lower sea
levels create stresses in the earth’s crust, and those let the magma force its way
into dikes and sometimes to the surface. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Numerical modeling indicates that when sea level falls 40
m (40 meters, or about 120 feet) below the present-day level, the induced
tensile stresses trigger dike injections. If sea level continues to fall to -70
or -90 m (210-270 feet) the induced tensile stress is inferred to allow dikes
to reach the surface and erupt,” the researchers wrote.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">They did extensive work on the Koko Rift, an 18-kilometer line of volcanic
activity that runs an axis from Koko Head and Koko Crater across the Ko’olau ridge to<span style="font-family: times;"> K<span style="font-size: 14.6667px;">āohikaip</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;">u Island off Makapu’u</span></span>. All the several volcanoes along that line erupted about the same
time, roughly 67,000 years ago: “The Koko Rift eruptions are analytically
indistinguishable in age,” they wrote.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Koko Rift volcanics are also the most recent examples of secondary or
rejuvenated volcanism in Hawai’i—younger than the cinder or tuff cones
elsewhere on O’ahu or on the other islands.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There have been other suggested explanations for secondary
volcanic activity, but this one seems to be a good fit.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Oscillations in sea level were recently recognized as a
potential key mechanism for modulating volcanism by causing crustal stress from
loading and unloading in ocean regions,” they wrote.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The low sea level periods are associated with ice ages—periods
when vast amounts of the planet’s water is locked up in ice caps, glaciers and
snow fields.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Certainly, sea levels aren’t the only cause of eruptions, and as mentioned earlier, there are cases of rejuvenated volcanism outside low stands of the sea. </p><p class="MsoNormal">And there is certainly plenty of eruptive activity during high sea level periods now, including the ongoing K<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ī</span>lauea
eruption, the recent Mauna Loa eruption, historic eruptions at Kama’ehuakanaloa
(formerly L<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ō</span>’ihi),
Hual<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ā</span>lai
and Haleakal<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ā</span>,
and a possible 1956 eruption in the Ka’ie’ie Channel between Kaua’i and O’ahu.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The authors of the rejuvenated volcanism paper concluded: “Future
investigations of rejuvenated volcanism in Hawai‘i and globally should also
consider the long-term influence of the Earth’s climate system on magmatic
processes to better infer past and future eruptive behavior.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: times;">It is also true that advances in science are driving new revelations, Garcia said in an email: "W<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">e are continuing to better understand secondary volcanism with an ongoing study of the age and geochemistry of Honolulu lavas. One might think that after more than 100 years of studying these lavas that we would fully understand them but new, more precise analytical methods are allowing us to gain a better understanding."</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-9838046747046438952023-02-02T16:13:00.004-10:002023-02-02T16:19:28.454-10:00Plastic pollution is inescapable, and it contributed to the death of our sperm whale<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh28Gt1KSak5VBiEBvzjKEOm32tAav4Kj_IJ5ortgv67HjF1PKfA24VmBetwCBFQC2CWUF1GGh9iu5Ha9CVhujei4-f-35103zh8XCY_XrThttThZvGD8ZD9k6vXzp0l4cA4oyTWeKflsuT-L-scdepH3tHpZIuGC2_n-lYJTi_Y5Y0lykz1IT3Zofq" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="6000" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh28Gt1KSak5VBiEBvzjKEOm32tAav4Kj_IJ5ortgv67HjF1PKfA24VmBetwCBFQC2CWUF1GGh9iu5Ha9CVhujei4-f-35103zh8XCY_XrThttThZvGD8ZD9k6vXzp0l4cA4oyTWeKflsuT-L-scdepH3tHpZIuGC2_n-lYJTi_Y5Y0lykz1IT3Zofq" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>(Images--above and at bottom--of marine debris from sperm whale belly, courtesy UH Health and Stranding Lab.)</p><p class="MsoNormal">If you’re a fish or a turtle or most any kind of marine life
feeding in the Pacific, it’s hard to avoid the plastic.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Almost all of the sea’s creatures end up ingesting some of
it, and that includes the massive (56 feet, 50ish tons) sperm whale that washed
up at Lydgate Park last week.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">The Ocean Cleanup estimates <a href="https://theoceancleanup.com/?utm_source=google_cpc&utm_medium=ad_grant&utm_campaign=awareness&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2-2eBhClARIsAGLQ2RnLX0xZAWf2HrPjnOclTUSSeRBpq09Y8ZiRD4y_Skd9dy58z419UzAaAs5aEALw_wcB">5 trillion bits</a> of plastic in
the ocean. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">And <a href="https://theoceancleanup.com/great-pacific-garbage-patch/#:~:text=A%20total%20of%201.8%20trillion,every%20human%20in%20the%20world.">1.8 trillion bits</a> in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch,
that vast gyre that runs roughly between Hawai’i and the Aleutians and
California. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">The World Economic Forum estimates the ocean has <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/recycling-global-statistics-facts-plastic-paper/">75 to 199 million tons</a> of plastic. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">So if a critter opens its mouth to take a bite of food, it’s
hard to miss getting some plastic as well.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">And they do. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">There are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0025326X21005439">microplastics in squid</a>. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Plastics in all <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.699521/full">species of marine turtles</a>. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Plastics in tuna, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308814622006835">including canned tuna meat</a>. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Plastics in many <a href="https://oceanblueproject.org/the-effects-of-plastic-p-on-seabirds/#:~:text=Adult%20birds%20return%20to%20nests,are%20full%20of%20plastic%20waste.">kinds of seabirds</a>. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">The Maritime Aquarium in Connecticut estimates that by 2050,
the way we’re going, there will be <a href="https://www.maritimeaquarium.org/single-use-plastics-initiative?gclid=Cj0KCQiA2-2eBhClARIsAGLQ2Rn1TMKKZP07A3m4N1CpasI5XmMx3R4v3CRzHoT8ulm54drQ2gYsBZ8aAmm4EALw_wcB">more plastic in the ocean than fish</a>. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">So, no surprise when an adult sperm whale washed ashore dead
last week, it <a href="https://dlnr.hawaii.gov/blog/2023/02/02/nr23-19/">had a bellyful</a>. Of plastic.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">“A major finding was the number of manufactured items in the
whale’s stomach,” said Dr. Kristi West, director of the University of Hawaiʻi
at Mānoa Health and Stranding Lab. It could have been enough plastic to cause a
blockage, and could have contributed to the whale’s death, West said.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">In addition to squid beaks and fish skeletons and other
natural food remains, they found chunks of plastic netting, plastic bags, bits
of rope, monofilament fishing line, a fishing net float, and several of the odd
cone-shaped black plastic devices that are the doors to hagfish traps.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">This is shocking, but it isn’t news. Whales of many species,
<a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/dead-pregnant-whale-plastic-italy#:~:text=A%20pregnant%20whale%20died%20with%20almost%2050%20pounds%20of%20plastic%20in%20her%20stomach&text=A%20pregnant%20sperm%20whale%20washed,stomach%20was%20full%20of%20plastic.">including sperm whales</a>, have been stranding all around the world with plastic
in their guts. And the filter-feeding Humpback whales that seasonally slap and leap around Hawai'i are not exempt, although they tend to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33334-5">ingest tinier bits</a> of plastic. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">The study into the cause of the Lydgate whale’s death will continue with laboratory analysis
of organ and other body parts, and it may be a long time before a firm cause of
its demise is established, if it is.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">And as for the plastics, where does it all come from?
Certainly a lot from fishing operations—some of the ropes, and monofilament,
and nets, and hagfish traps and plastic floats. But it’s estimated far more
comes from the land—blowing off the shore, sluicing down storm drains and, the
biggest source, washing down big rivers. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">© Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj4IPj-Bp5FPs0Q2YC37NiC3EwuNplyCcRIWa_DDP5n3xEObKSxuhkoKlMNaAX6A99esxSvOsv53OMkyXF3HFCLC0fATWHH38D3z3KRtu58WfL0ZAwp6vgds3qqN-OPkwOIZ8RnHziyk8yNyAXtJ9FWpKVrl2tM4OyHOZs8DGWrH9dvZl0N4AI5fvBQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="512" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj4IPj-Bp5FPs0Q2YC37NiC3EwuNplyCcRIWa_DDP5n3xEObKSxuhkoKlMNaAX6A99esxSvOsv53OMkyXF3HFCLC0fATWHH38D3z3KRtu58WfL0ZAwp6vgds3qqN-OPkwOIZ8RnHziyk8yNyAXtJ9FWpKVrl2tM4OyHOZs8DGWrH9dvZl0N4AI5fvBQ" width="240" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfcuzgdXTnDEI_7-P13J4fVpVbCbpkePey7Ev39FEdPzmkvbwfU-MmI82piA_Zh63zxFw967IPiFTa-2oWs8DRZTd5rylLuZsxY6z0vL6yYsqsUibZKK-2o3UTVXbr-aod5XlAmBqZSlF7Y4Xq1Ofrf8Li_0anEcteQmfRIJ53SHopyLm1NM2QCyK8" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="4000" data-original-width="6000" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfcuzgdXTnDEI_7-P13J4fVpVbCbpkePey7Ev39FEdPzmkvbwfU-MmI82piA_Zh63zxFw967IPiFTa-2oWs8DRZTd5rylLuZsxY6z0vL6yYsqsUibZKK-2o3UTVXbr-aod5XlAmBqZSlF7Y4Xq1Ofrf8Li_0anEcteQmfRIJ53SHopyLm1NM2QCyK8" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-65307270740457729982023-01-31T08:48:00.002-10:002023-01-31T08:48:16.870-10:00Using mirrors to convince birds to nest: experiments at Lehua Island<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJl8iF9CsA1T8GDrD7Jx89OIA5-QMqnUT1XH0F1fX79aAriDoGp4YQrPt5DUxbJ3Tliqtb_LBc4cNVQc1TDNma_AD3UF7Nn_CWp5nsdj_WjnW03l1El2Gjsfe6sI-1jOIxrgt2_b48tlzPLvFxZSMy53aZrBh8kmioifu3midw5m1vhMenzl6SlwZz" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="693" data-original-width="1220" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJl8iF9CsA1T8GDrD7Jx89OIA5-QMqnUT1XH0F1fX79aAriDoGp4YQrPt5DUxbJ3Tliqtb_LBc4cNVQc1TDNma_AD3UF7Nn_CWp5nsdj_WjnW03l1El2Gjsfe6sI-1jOIxrgt2_b48tlzPLvFxZSMy53aZrBh8kmioifu3midw5m1vhMenzl6SlwZz" width="320" /></a></div><br />(Image: Aerial view of Lehua Island, courtesy of DLNR.)<p></p><p> If you’re lonely, does looking in a mirror help? Probably
not, but it may help for seabirds.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One of the tools wildlife biologists use for re-establishing
colonies of some seabirds is mirror boxes—structures with multiple mirrors, designed to convince the birds that
there are more of them than there really are.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That’s being attempted at Lehua Island, a small tuff cone
island off Ni’ihau, where biologists are trying to re-establish several bird
species that once nested there.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Those efforts have a chance of working, since rats
were declared eradicated from the island in 2021. Rats are believed to have
caused the failure of several nesting species on the island, since the rodents
eat both eggs and young birds.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Rat predation is significant: “rats (particularly black
rats; <i>Rattus rattus</i>) are considered to be a direct cause of the
threatened status of at least 75 island-nesting species of seabirds,” wrote the
authors of this paper. <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076138">https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076138</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But once the rats are gone, there is the question of how to
convince birds to start nesting in a location again. Mirrors are a solution for
some bird species.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The mirror technique is not new, and it seems to work.
<a href="https://bioone.org/journals/waterbirds/volume-30/issue-1/1524-4695_2007_030_0017_AOSATU_2.0.CO_2/Assessment-of-Social-Attraction-Techniques-Used-to-Restore-a-Common/10.1675/1524-4695(2007)030[0017:AOSATU]2.0.CO;2.short">Researchers in California,</a> who were trying to re-establish a colony of common
murre found that once they arrived, the birds were far more dense around
mirrors than in other parts of the colony. They seem to like being in crowds. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At Lehua, mirror boxes are one of the techniques being
used to try to lure three species of terns back to Lehua: the ʻewaʻewa or Sooty
Tern,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>pākalakala or Gray-backed Tern,
and the hinaokū or Blue-gray Noddy. </p><p class="MsoNormal">In addition to the mirror boxes, there are speakers broadcasting
recordings of tern songs, and decoy birds.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The state Department of Land and Natural Resources reported
on the efforts in <a href="https://dlnr.hawaii.gov/blog/2023/01/25/nr23-12/">this press release</a>.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Researchers are using different techniques to try to attract
endangered ‘akē’akē or Band-rumped Storm-petrel and ʻuaʻu or Hawaiian petrels
to Lehua. For those species artificial nest boxes and recorded bird calls are
believed to be more effective. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">All these birds are believed to be normally flying in
Hawaiian waters, but several may be nesting in colornies on Kaua’I, Ni’ihau and
elsewhere that are at risk from predation. Lehua is free of rats, cats, pigs,
dogs and most other predators, so it is considered a good spot for colony
re-estalbishment.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But it is not entirely predator-free. <a href="http://www.marineornithology.org/PDF/47_1/47_1_33-38.pdf">Researchers in 2019 published a paper</a> that reported introduced barn owls are preying on seabirds
there and elsewhere. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Authors Andre Raine, Megan Vynne and Scott Driskill reported
on the impacts of barn owls at nesting sites on Kaua’i, Lehua and at the small
island Moku’ae’ae off K<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ī</span>lauea Point. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The owls, which ironically were introduced to Hawai’i for
the purpose of controlling rats, tend to take adult nesting birds of numerous
species.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Owl depredations were recorded of eight seabird species,
the most common of which were Wedge-tailed Shearwater <i>Ardenna pacifica</i>, Black
Noddy <i>Anous minutus</i>, and Bulwer’s Petrel <i>Bulweria bulwerii</i>.
Included were 21 depredations on federally listed Newell’s Shearwater <i>Puffinus
newelli</i> and Hawaiian Petrel <i>Pterodroma sandwichensis</i>,” they wrote.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">While rats generally went after eggs and young, owls
generally take adult birds.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Their recommended solution:: “Barn Owl control should be
considered as an integral part of all Hawaiian seabird management programs.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-9845561820214954802023-01-29T10:32:00.001-10:002023-01-29T10:32:10.417-10:00Why did the sperm whale die? That's not yet clear, but myriad possibilities<p> It will likely be weeks or longer before we know why a big
sperm whale washed ashore on Kauai, or we may never know.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Some folks have already been suggesting theories, but
without doing the science, it’s guesswork.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There are many known causes of sperm whale strandings—many
natural and some involving human activities. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Veterinarians and other wildlife experts are doing the hard
work to conduct a necropsy on the more than 50-foot sperm whale that washed up
at Lydgate Beach Park in Wailua, Kaua’i, on the morning of January 28. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But let’s look at some of the possibilities.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Whales do get old and die. They get viruses and other
diseases. They can be affected by parasites. There is some evidence that
climate change can impact navigation and food availability. They can be injured
by natural (think big sharks) or human (think container ship impacts) causes. Noise
can disorient them, and that noise can be from natural causes like undersea earthquakes,
or human causes like deep sea mining exploration, sonar and noisy big ships.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The options really are too numerous for guesses to be taken
seriously. Some recent strandings have had various causes.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One sperm whale that beached in the Florida Keys last year
was very thin. On investigation, it had ingested marine debris, which had interfered
with its ability to feed.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A 30-foot sperm whale that washed up this month in Oregon
had injuries consistent with being hit by a ship.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6080757/">This 2018 study</a> suggests that some North Sea strandings may
simply have been because the healthy but young sperm whales inadvertently swam
into shallow water and couldn’t get back into the deep. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Sperm whales, like many others, can become engangled in
marine debris like ropes and buoys, and can be weakened by having to drag all
that weight. Entanglement in fishing gear like buoys can make it difficult for
whales to submerge for feeding.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1385110104001297">This 2005 study</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and
<a href="https://benthamopen.com/contents/pdf/TOMBJ/TOMBJ-3-89.pdf">this 2009 study</a> suggested that sunspot activity and even changes in the Earth’s
magnetic field could impact sperm whale stranding. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As <a href="http://raisingislands.blogspot.com/2023/01/new-clues-in-hawaii-whale-strandings.html">we reported recently</a> at Raising Islands, roughly half of recent
stranded whales of various were associated with a newly described virus. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In some cases, there are multiple things going on, such as
skin disease, liver disease, parasites, viral infections, bacterial infections,
fungal infections, high concentrations in blubber of man-made chemicals like
pesticides and PCBs, and having ingested plastic while feeding. In many cases,
it is not possible to determine which, if any, of these was the cause of the
stranding.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And then there is the whole issue of climate change, which
can impact marine life in numerous ways, including forcing animals into
unfamiliar feeding territories, impacting feeding for juvenile animals, and much
more. <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/zo/ZO12131">This Australian study from 2013</a> suggested: “Reductions in the extent of
key habitats, changes in breeding success, a greater incidence of strandings in
dugongs and cetaceans, and increased exposure of coastal species to pollutants
and pathogens are likely.” <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In one month last year, 17 whales of several different
species stranded off Norway. The cause is not known, and as the authors of <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00300-021-02869-6">this paper</a> wrote, “Whale strandings are common globally, although to date there are
still many challenges in identifying their cause.” <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-24416758402866123732023-01-28T11:32:00.007-10:002023-01-28T13:38:25.935-10:00Sperm whale strands on Kaua'i's Lydgate Beach at Wailua<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVr11wK528Fw32Np-IbMQZxgoXb9uKJBu72b0kax8_A0WEAHe0Kmj3jZYVAnowhyEdeig_k3DeUciPTZtpDxs5XMwS1d3A_cAQVGbtOhLlbe29H8-wrKQ1rsELUND_mZQBWtx0lIhV68AmJ6fj6tODxeidViPxCoEspVVRmqQKE2EF3q6pnBFxN2rN/s4000/IMG_20230128_085621888.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3000" data-original-width="4000" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVr11wK528Fw32Np-IbMQZxgoXb9uKJBu72b0kax8_A0WEAHe0Kmj3jZYVAnowhyEdeig_k3DeUciPTZtpDxs5XMwS1d3A_cAQVGbtOhLlbe29H8-wrKQ1rsELUND_mZQBWtx0lIhV68AmJ6fj6tODxeidViPxCoEspVVRmqQKE2EF3q6pnBFxN2rN/s320/IMG_20230128_085621888.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">An adult sperm whale washed ashore early today (Saturday,
January 28, 2023) at Lydgate Park in Wailua, on Kaua’i.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The county issued a press release urging people to stay away
from the popular beach park while government agencies respond to the incident.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The marine mammal appeared by initial estimates to be more
than 50 feet in length, and could weigh 30-45 tons. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The whale was reported visible on the reef off the beach
park Friday afternoon, apparently already dead. By morning it was washing in
the shorebreak. Government officials were working to determine how to deal with
the animal. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Sometimes dead marine mammals are brought ashore for burial. Sometimes they are towed out to sea. And occasionally, particularly when they are in remote locations, they are left to decompose in place, where they become a major food resource for crabs and other coastal marine life.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">However, Kaua’i County’s Lydgate Beach Park is hardly a
remote location. It gets hundreds of visitors daily for its white sand beach,
protected swimming area, pavilions, playground, tennis courts and more. The
whale carcass was roughly in the middle of the beach fronting the park, about
1,500 feet south of the mouth of Wailua River.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">No cause of death has been determined, but National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration personnel, along with state Department of Land
and Natural Resources personnel, will conduct a necropsy to gather evidence.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In a 2017 stranding of five pilot whales at Kalapaki Beach,
about six miles south of Lydgate, the animals were removed to a remote island
location, where necropsies were conducted before burial of the whales. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Sperm whales are found regularly in the deep waters off
the Hawaiian Islands and the rest of the Pacific, and they were a key target of
the whaling fleets that operated around the Islands during the early 1800s. There
have been sperm whale strandings on several Hawaiian Islands.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">In December 2021, an adult sperm whale washed ashore at Pila’a, Kaua’i, about a dozen miles north of Wailua.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Whale strandings and deaths have been linked to disease,
parasites, impact injuries from watercraft and other causes, but the cause of
many strandings is never determined.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.newsweek.com/weird-spike-stranded-dead-whales-washing-1775302">Newsweek earlier this month</a> reported an unusual increase in
marine mammal strandings recently, including two sperm whales and seven humpbacks in the
North Atlantic since December. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/pacific-islands/endangered-species-conservation/marine-mammal-strandings-hawaii">NOAA Fisheries reports</a> that on average, there are 20
strandings of whales or dolphins in the Hawaiian Islands in any given year. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Just this week, researchers at the University of Hawai’i and
NOAA reported on a newly discovered virus that was found in the tissues of 15
of 30 tested cetaceans that died on beaches in Hawai’i, Samoa, Saipan and at sea. It is
not clear that virus was the cause of death in any of these cases, but it has the capacity to cause
significant illness in some dolphins and whales. <a href="http://raisingislands.blogspot.com/2023/01/new-clues-in-hawaii-whale-strandings.html">We reported on that</a> in an
earlier blog. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Sperm whales are the largest of the toothed whales, with
adults ranging from 40 to 52 feet in length. The Lydgate whale appears to be at
the upper end of that range. They can range in weight from 15 to 45 tons, according
to NOAA Fisheries.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">They are found throughout the world’s oceans, and while
their population has increased significantly from the heavy whaling years, they
continue to be listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and
depleted under the Marine Mammal Protection Act. They are now protected throughout
their range.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://media.fisheries.noaa.gov/dam-migration/po2000whsp-hi-508.pdf">NOAA estimates</a> that more than 400,000 sperm whales were
taken between the start of whaling in 1800 and its end in 1987 in the North
Pacific alone, and more in other oceans. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="Current global population size, post-whaling trend and historical trajectory of sperm whales | Scientific Reports (nature.com)">A study reported last year in Nature</a> estimates that the
pre-whaling global population of sperm whales approached 2 million, that it was
severely depleted by whaling, and that in 2022, the number had grown back to
around 850,000. But the study said those estimates are very uncertain.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-20912971487552512472023-01-26T12:46:00.005-10:002023-01-26T13:17:16.248-10:00New clues in Hawai'i whale strandings<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjITlagGb6l04lM3GxSiI4SBMAwH3BO2aQsSMT8B-ZP8fXF-YnzkRGl6Tubyam5qU1mXnJeJthGpdgh4r9sOmBdl1tJOX1ukYpuLBWA5CrOiYNEFpf5XIhlmzDouOoXqqUZjp-cyAIeKWpnXFr_tWdWIlJHgyEwev-ezqT9HhU3M1sBJjr9t-xsUDwh" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="180" data-original-width="320" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjITlagGb6l04lM3GxSiI4SBMAwH3BO2aQsSMT8B-ZP8fXF-YnzkRGl6Tubyam5qU1mXnJeJthGpdgh4r9sOmBdl1tJOX1ukYpuLBWA5CrOiYNEFpf5XIhlmzDouOoXqqUZjp-cyAIeKWpnXFr_tWdWIlJHgyEwev-ezqT9HhU3M1sBJjr9t-xsUDwh" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">Whale and dolphin strandings are generally fatal to the
marine mammals involved, but also traumatize their human cousins who attend
them. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Often, researchers have been unable to figure out why the
animals appear to commit suicide. Now there’s a hint of a clue.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Two of the pilot whales that stranded (image above) on Kaua’i’s Kalapaki
Beach in 2017 suffered from a newly discovered virus that affected multiple
organs.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It was October 13, when five pilot whales drove themselves
onto the sand at the popular beach outside Lihue, and fronting what is now the
Sonesta Kauai resort. People tried pushing the whales back into the sea, but
often they swam or washed right back in. More whales from the same pod were herded away
from the beach by paddlers and surfers, and appeared to have survived and left the bay.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">They were short-finned pilot whales, <i>Globicephala macrorhyncus</i>.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.945289/full">new study of necropsy samples</a> from numerous whale and dolphin strandings—on Kaua’i, O’ahu,
Molokai, Maui, Hawai’i Island, as well as Saipan and American Samoa—shows that those
two Kaua’I animals and many of the other stranded cetaceans were suffering from
a newly discovered beaked whale circovirus. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The study was published today (Jan. 26, 2023) in the journal
<u>Frontiers in Marine Research</u>. Its authors are Cody Clifton and Kristi West of the
University of Hawai’i College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources and
the university’s Hawai’i Institute of Marine Biology; Ilse Silva-Krott of Hawai’i
Institute of Marine Biology; and Michael Marsik of the National Marine Fisheries
Service in Pago Pago.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">They call the virus an “emergent disease with unknown
population impacts.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The researchers studied archived tissues collected in
necropsies of 30 individuals involved in recent Pacific strandings—including from
the brain, kidney, liver, lung, spleen and lymph nodes. In many cases, the
virus—identified through PCR testing—was found in multiple organs.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The tissues were being stored at the University of Hawai‘i
Health and Stranding Laboratory.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Of the screened individuals, 15 animals tested positive in
one or more tissues, with a single striped dolphin (<i>Stenella coeruleoalba</i>)
testing positive in all six tissues,” they wrote.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Brain tissue was the most consistently positive tissue type
(69%), followed by lymph tissue (67%) and lung tissue (64%),” they wrote.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It is not clear whether the viral infection caused or was
directly related to the strandings, but it is a significant medical issue for
marine mammals.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“Infectious diseases pose a major threat to cetaceans and (beaked
whale circovirus) may represent an important emerging disease within
populations spanning the central, Western, and South Pacific,” the authors
wrote.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Different circoviruses are known from pets and wild animals,
including birds, and while they may cause minimal health effects, they can sometimes be
fatal. They can be associated with tissue inflammation as well a tissue death
in organs. They are often associated with difficulty breathing.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And yet, sometimes, animals can be profoundly infected
without showing significant symptoms. A false killer whale accidentally caught
at sea had the virus in its brain, lungs, liver and lymph nodes, and yet appeared
perfectly healthy.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The earliest recognized occurrence of
this virus was in a Longman’s beaked whale (<i>Indopacetus pacificus</i>) that stranded
on Maui in 2010. The presence of this particular virus was not identified until
10 years after its death. That one was a very sick whale. It was infected with
multiple viruses. The authors of the study said multiple infections like this are not
uncommon. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And although that Longman’s Beaked whale gave the virus its
name, the disease has now been found in 10 other species of marine mammal. And
the authors fully expect it to be found in more marine mammals.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A<a href="http://manoa.hawaii.edu/news/article.php?aId=12388"> press release on the study</a> is here. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-26340498960433509642023-01-26T08:16:00.005-10:002023-01-26T08:16:54.847-10:00You live Hawai'i, you live longer<p> You live in Hawai’i, you live longer.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This has been the case for a while, and in the latest statistics, the Islands continue
to have the highest life expectancy of any state in the U.S. </p><p class="MsoNormal">If you live here, on
average you can expect to live to age 80.7 years, compared to a national
average of 76.1. We are the only state with a life expectancy of more than
80.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The online publication <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/3829128-here-is-why-hawaii-has-the-longest-life-expectancy-in-the-country/?utm_source=join1440&utm_medium=email">The Hill just discovered the news</a>,
and wrote about it this week. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At Raising Islands, we have covered this issue before.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s about exercise, the outdoor life, a low rate of smoking
and a comparatively low rate of obesity. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Our rate of death from <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/heart_disease_mortality/heart_disease.htm">heart disease<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is the second-lowest</a> in the country, after
Minnesota (must be the ice fishing) and just ahead of Massachusetts (the beans?). The highest five states in heart diseases, listing the worst first:
Mississsippi, Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas and Louisiana. Here’s the data on
that. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We also have the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/cancer_mortality/cancer.htm">second-lowest cancer death rate</a>, this time
just behind Utah and ahead of Colorado. The five worst: Kentucky, West
Virginia, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee. Here are those data. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">We are in the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/stroke_mortality/stroke.htm">middle of the pack on death from strokes</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">There are some other factors, too. We like our beer, but
deaths from alcohol are far lower than the national average. And our state
spends three times per capita the average state’s spending on health care.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Commonwealth Fund pulled together all the stats in its <a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/scorecard/2022/jun/2022-scorecard-state-health-system-performance">2022 Scorecard on State Health System Performance</a>. It found Hawai’i is not just at
the top of the longevity list, but way ahead. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The numbers grew even more disparate during the COVID-19
epidemic, when the number of excess deaths from all causes were less than a
fifth in Hawai’i compared to the worst states—110 per 100,000 in the Islands
compared to 596 per 100,000 people in Mississippi. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s not all great news. If there is one area that needs a
lot of help, it is with mental illness. The Commonwealth Fund report found that
Hawaii is the worst state in the country for adults with mental illness who did
not receive treatment in 2018-2019. Two-thirds of our adults with mental illness
did not receive treatment—and the statistics for Hawai’i are getting worse.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-17022920099222481732023-01-19T08:58:00.006-10:002023-01-19T08:58:47.883-10:00El Nino may be back by summer, with all the scary stuff that means<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal">The planet gave us all a break from hurricane-dense El Niño
during Covid, but that may be coming to an end.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">After three years of cooler temperatures in the tropical
Pacific, there are indications things are going to be heating up again. Enough
that even the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/01/19/el-nino-return-climate-record/">New York Times reviewed it today</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For Hawai’i residents, hurricanes are the
top-of-consciousness impact of El Niño<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>events. In El Niño years, they are more frequent, on average,
than in neutral or La Niña conditions.
Occasionally they are lots more frequent.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">El Niño is a climate
phenomenon. A major feature of El Niño is that a massive pool of warm ocean
water migrates from the western to the eastern Pacific along the equator. It
happens every few years, and it is associated with global climate impacts:
fewer Atlantic tropical cyclones, more Central Pacific storms, drought in
Australia and India, more summer rainfall in California, coral bleaching events.
In Hawaii, on average, winters are drier in El Niño years.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">La Niña<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is not quite
the opposite, but it is a cooler temperature phase in the Pacific, and it has
different global impacts.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">current prediction suggests</a> that over the next few
months, we will shift from a cooler La Niña <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>condition toward a neutral condition. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">By summer, the forecast shows a more than 50% (and rising
after that) likelihood we will shift into an El Niño. That coincides with Hawai’i’s
hurricane season.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">What does that mean for island residents? If you haven’t
made home repairs, haven’t figured out storm window protection, haven’t trimmed
that rotten mango limb hanging over the house, haven’t updated your home hurricane
kit, it’s probably a good time to get on it.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Here is <a href="https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20210318/proper-emergency-kit-essential-hurricane-preparedness">FEMA’s suggested hurricane kit</a> content list. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Hawai’i Emergency Management Agency has its <a href="https://dod.hawaii.gov/hiema/public-resources/preparedness-information/#:~:text=HI-EMA%20strongly%20recommends%20a%20radio%20as%20part%20od,takes%20very%20little%20space%20in%20your%20emergency%20kit.">list of recommendations here</a>. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jan TenBruggencate
2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-55096629222606181202023-01-08T09:15:00.001-10:002023-01-08T09:28:41.034-10:00Quick update on where we are with newest Covid-19 variant XBB.1.5<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The newest
Covid variant might be an American native version of the pandemic virus.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">At least it was most widespread earliest in New England. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Omicron XBB.1.5 was
first identified in New York and Massachusetts, and is now rampaging across the
country. It is still comparatively rare in the rest of the world. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">As of the
end of last week in the U.S., it represented three quarters of Covid-19 cases
in the northeast, and nearly a third of cases nationwide. It has been identified in Hawai'i, but not yet in significant numbers. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">"XBB.1.5 has not been detected in clinical samples across the state but was found in
Honolulu County wastewater," <a href="https://health.hawaii.gov/coronavirusdisease2019/files/2023/01/Wastewater-Report-01-03-23.pdf">reported the Hawai'i State Department of Health</a> in its Wastewater Surveillance Report of January 3, 2023.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It seems to
be more transmissible than earlier versions, but it is not yet clear whether it
makes you sicker or less sick. <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.522427v2.abstract">One report suggests</a> that it is “displaying
slightly weaker immune evasion capability than XBB.1.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That’s not necessarily
great news, because an </span><a href="https://www.news-medical.net/news/20221213/Characterization-of-immune-evasion-and-cell-entry-for-new-variants-BQ11-XBB1-and-BR21.aspx" style="font-size: 12pt;">Australian study found</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> that XBB.1 was “highly immune-evasive.” </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Best guess
is that the vaccines and boosters will continue to have value, particularly the
most recent bivalent booster vaccine. But they might not provide as robust protection as they do against older version for which they were designed. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And for those who become seriously ill, at least some of <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2214302">the antivirals, like Paxlovid, continue to be effective</a> against XBB.1.5. <a href="https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-releases-important-information-about-risk-covid-19-due-certain-variants-not-neutralized-evusheld">Others, like Evusheld, may not be</a> as effective. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It should be
noted that researchers in some of these cited studies, in the interest of
fast-changing public health threats, have released preliminary versions of
their papers. So some of the work has not yet gone through the full peer review process.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></span></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-74024045769403789732023-01-07T10:28:00.002-10:002023-01-08T15:12:30.077-10:00Removing rats from islands has big impacts on nearshore ocean productivity<p> New research shows that small islands without rats have more productive nearshore environments than those with rats.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It’s a fascinating bit of data that seems to confirm
Leonardo Da Vinci’s observation: “Learn how to see. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Realize that everything connects to everything
else.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But how do rats and fish connect? <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Well, through seabirds. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The birds catch fish at sea. They nest on islands. They poop
on those islands. The guano runs off to the nearshore water, where it
fertilizes the reef. That means reef fish have more to eat. (And then, of
course, the seabirds eat the fish, closing a great circle.)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If you put invasive rats on such an island, they eat the
birds and eggs, the seabird population collapses, there’s less guano, and reef
fish populations do less well.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The details of this dynamic are described in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01931-8?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=CONR_PF018_ECOM_GL_PHSS_ALWYS_DEEPLINK&utm_content=textlink&utm_term=PID100060515&CJEVENT=94f68f518eaa11ed80222da30a1c0e11">a new 2023 paper in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution</a>. It is entitled, Terrestrial invasive
species alter marine vertebrate behavior. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ultimately, it’s a natural nutrient cycle, and the rats break
it. Across the globe conservation organizations have been trying to heal the
cycle by eradicating alien rats from small islands. It’s a huge task. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The removal of rats from Lehua Island, north of Ni’ihau,
required a concerted effort by a <a href="https://www.islandconservation.org/invasive-rats-lehua-island/">broad consortium</a> that included the
organization Island Conservation, along with the state Division of Forestry and
Wildlife and its parent agency the State Department of Land and Natural
Resources, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture’s
National Wildlife Research Center in Hilo, Niihau Ranch, U.S. Coast Guard,
National Tropical Botanical Garden and several other associated organizations
and agencies. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At Lehua, they were able to remove the rats, and have
recorded recovering bird populations. Whether fish populations around the island
have changed or increased has not been reported.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Most of the research to date on rat removal has been used to
document the recovery of bird populations, <a href="https://www.nps.gov/chis/learn/news/anacapa-island-recovery.htm">like this report on Anacapa Island</a>,
off California. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And <a href="https://www.pctonline.com/news/island-of-rats-invasive-rodent-removal/">this report on Hawadax Island</a> in the Aleutians, formerly
known as Rat Island. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Guano has been mined off small bird islands around the world
for many years, for use as a natural fertilizer for land-based agriculture. Guano
has similar fertilizing impacts on aquatic systems, says the Nature Ecology and
Evolution study.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“The movement of naturally occurring nutrients across habitats
and ecosystems is a strong driver of productivity and can influence community
dynamics,” the authors wrote.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">They found that fish in rat-free environment have to
spend less time fighting for food, and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> are </span>able to cruise larger territories.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The research was done on 10 islands, 5 without rats and 5
with rats, in the Chagos Archipelago, which is in the Indian Ocean south of the
Maldives. One finding: “Seabird densities on rat-free islands are up to 720
times higher, and the nitrogen input provided by seabirds is 251 times greater,
than around rat-infested islands.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One interesting finding is that there wasn not necessarily
more algae growing on rat-free islands, but that the algae there was more nutritious,
so fish didn’t have to eat as much.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Nature study’s English and Canadian authors are Rachel
L. Gunn, Cassandra E. Benkwitt, Nicholas A. J. Graham, Ian R. Hartley, Adam C.
Algar and Sally A. Keith. Most are from the Lancaster environment Centre at Lancaster
University. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">An earlier study by <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33887185/">some of the same researchers confirmed</a>
that rat-free islands had higher nutrient levels in nearshore waters. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34131172/">this study suggests that while there aren’t necessarily more fish</a> around rat-free islands, the fish grow faster and are significantly
heavier. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Overall mean body size was 16% larger
around rat-free islands.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-11959912946140725332023-01-04T09:26:00.003-10:002023-01-04T09:26:35.839-10:00New research: Hawaii dramatically drier over past 40 years<p> <span style="font-size: 14pt;">Hawaii has
grown drier and browner over the last 40 years.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This won’t
be a big surprise to land managers who have faced repeated droughts, more
wildfires and lower streamflows. But now there’s data to back up their
observations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A new study
in the journal Environmental Management confirms that reduced rainfall has had
significant impacts across the state. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That
translates to less green, more brown.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00267-022-01749-x#Sec8">The paper</a>,
which was published in November 2022, has the title: “A Near Four-Decade Time
Series Shows the Hawaiian Islands Have Been Browning Since the 1980s.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The lead
author, Austin Madson, is with Wyoming Geographic Information Science Center,
University of Wyoming. Co-authors, several from Hawai’i, include Monica Dimson,
Lucas Berio Fortini, Kapua Kawelo, Tamara Ticktin, Matt Keir, Chunyu Dong,
Zhimin Ma, David W. Beilman, Kelly Kay, Jonathan Pando Ocón, Erica Gallerani,
Stephanie Pau and Thomas W. Gillespie.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They used
satellite measurements to show that Hawai’i’s environment is going in the
opposite direction of most of the planet.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Globally
there has been a significant increase in … greenness due to climate warming,”
they wrote. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The researchers
looked at all eight major Hawaiian Islands, using a system called the Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index or NVDI. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Their
findings: “Overall, there has been a significant decline in NDVI (i.e.,
browning) in the Hawaiian Islands from 1984 to 2019.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ni’ihau and Kaho’olawe,
already the driest of the islands, did not see significant changes, but all the
other islands “experienced significant declines,” they wrote. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Kaua’i was a
little better off, but the problem was worse on O’ahu and Molokai, and worst of
all on Lana’i and Hawai’i. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Native
forests, generally in the uplands, suffered some if the worst declines: “Native
ecosystems on O’ahu (56%), Moloka’i (70%), and Hawai’i (57%) decreased the most
in NDVI from 1984 to 2019.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That
translates, they said, into reduced productivity and reduced biodiversity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“In the
future, if the drying and warming of the climate on the leeward slope of the
island of Hawai’i continue, native ecosystems may become increasingly
vulnerable to fire and succumb to the expansion of invasive species.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Whether the
drying trend will continue isn’t known, but it’s a worrisome trajectory.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Jan TenBruggencate 2023<o:p></o:p></span></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3900438532658604202.post-70666473817569555442022-12-31T08:00:00.001-10:002022-12-31T08:00:54.130-10:00The volcanoes: Kīlauea reinflating, Mauna Loa resting<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Two weeks after their double eruption,
Kīlauea and Mauna Loa are handling the holidays differently, although neither
is erupting.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Mauna Loa appears to be resting,
according to the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">At Mauna Loa, “deformation rates have
decreased significantly, and there is no sign of inflation at this time. The
Hawaiian Volcano Observatory continues to closely monitor the earthquake and
deformation rates at Mauna Loa. We expect additional shallow seismicity and other
signs of unrest to precede any future eruption, if one were to occur,” the
observatory reported.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">At Kīlauea, there is more activity. Seismologists’
instruments show that Kīlauea is re-inflating, its upper area expanding as
magma pumps into underground chambers near the surface.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The smaller mountain has been
inflating since November 29—meaning it was inflating at the same time it was
erupting during the early days of the Mauna Loa eruption. A seismic swarm, indicating
magma movement underground, shook the volcano Friday (December 30).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“These earthquakes are typical as the
summit of Kīlauea repressurizes after the end of the last eruption.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The earthquakes are generally dispersed
beneath and around the south side of Halemaʻumaʻu,” the HVO reported.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">It is normal for Mauna Loa to take a longer
break between eruptions than Kīlauea.<span style="background: white; color: #1d2228;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #1d2228; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Kīlauea’s
most recent eruption lasted a little more than 14 months from September 29,
2021, to December 9, 2022. It was entirely within the crater at Halema’uma’u.
The volcano erupts frequently, often a couple of times a year, and sometimes continuously
for years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #1d2228; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Mauna
Loa’s recent eruption lasted from November 27, 2022, to December 10, 2022. The
volcano for the past couple of centuries has erupted every five years or so,
but pauses between eruptions can be months to decades long.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #1d2228; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">© Jan
TenBruggencate 2022<o:p></o:p></span></p>Jan Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11097508601802284702noreply@blogger.com0