It's been a while coming, but federal climate researchers
say there's now robust evidence that the Pacific is moving into a new El Nino
cycle.
For our Islands, that means a possibly dry winter, and the
potential of a higher hurricane count than normal in 2019.
The Climate Prediction Center issued its new outlook today
(Nov. 8, 2018), and you can look at it here.
It concludes that there is now an 80 percent chance that an
El Nino will form, and will stay in place right through next winter—meaning it's
there during the entire 2019 hurricane season.
There are now warmer-than-normal water temperatures across
the equatorial Pacific, although right now the assessment is that conditions are
still neutral.
Climate forecasters' best guess is that the 2019 El Nino
will not be a strong one, giving those concerned about hurricane patterns a
little good news.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society
at Columbia University publishes lots of detailed information on climate
forecasts, and if you're interested in a whole lot of colorful spaghetti charts
summarizing different climate models, look here.
© Jan TenBruggencate 2018
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