El Nino is back. What does this mean?
A new El Nino formed in January, "based on the presence
of above-average sea surface temperatures across most of the equatorial Pacific
Ocean and corresponding changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation,"
according to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service.
In Hawaiian waters, the temperatures are still a little cooler
than normal, but in the equatorial Pacific, a giant pool of warm water has
developed, and it's a sign of ocean-wide changes in the behavior of our
atmosphere.
The El Nino has just started, and so far, the evidence is "consistent
with borderline, weak El Niño conditions."
And there is no clear sign that it will strengthen further
or persist beyond the spring season, forecasters say. They give it just a 50
percent chance of continuing later into the year.
So that’s a good sign, it would seem, for the two major
issues that El Nino conditions set up for the Hawaiian Islands: increased hurricane
activity in strong El Nino years, and winter drought.
For now, stay tuned.
© Jan TenBruggencate 2019
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