Sunday, November 10, 2019
Fiddling as the planet burns. Climate change is upon us.
We saw it
coming, but we did not know it would come so fast.
Climate
change, long a threat for future decades, for the grandchildren, is here now.
In part, after a century of comparatively stable climate, the
very concept of sudden dramatic change seemed so bizarre that many scientists have underplayed the possibilities.
The
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in early years issued conservative predictions. Some say the authors felt nobody
would pay attention to the more alarmist predictions. Bizarrely, when
scientists couldnʻt agree on how much Antarctic and Greenland ice melting would
add to sea level, they just left those contributions out of their calculations
entirely, vastly understating possible sea level rise.
In the Hawaiian Islands, king tides now regularly flood low coastal areas that 50 years ago and 25 years ago were always dry. Thatʻs going to keep getting worse.
The IPCC is getting up to speed and has been more realistic in its 2018 report. It has had to: "One of the key messages that comes out very strongly from this report is that we are already seeing the consequences of 1 degree of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes," said Panmao Zhai, co-chair of IPPCʻs Working Group 1.
In Hawai`i, as
temperatures rise, mosquitoes are able to survive at higher and higher
elevations—where they carry fatal diseases to Hawaiian forest birds. I attended
a meeting last week at which a bird researcher, when asked what was happening right
now with Kaua`i forest birds, he said "theyʻre quietly dying of
malaria."
Recently
11,000 scientists, exhausted with inaccurately conservative predictions, raised the alarm in a
paper in Bioscience Magazine. There is an "urgent need for action,"
they said.
Our planet has a fever, itʻs just starting on a long uphill
trajectory, and so far, weʻre doing virtually nothing about it.
In our Hawaiian
Islands, reduced rainfall associated with climate change has parched forests,
and exacerbated wildfires that have burned thousands of acres on all the major
islands.
The central
Pacific—our part of the ocean—is seeing corals bleaching and dying. They are
impacted by changes in water temperature, changes in ocean acidity, changes in
current patterns, all related to climate change.
Here is the summary for policymakers issued by the IPCC in October 2018.
Little blogs
like this one have been raising the alarm for years, with little apparent impact
on policymakers. Examples? Here from January this year, here from 2016, here from 2015, here from 2012, here from 2010, here from 2009. And those are just a few of the articles.
But itʻs hard to feel isolated, because mainstream science has
been suggesting ever more alarming scenarios. And while smaller responses to climate change might
have worked in the past, what is now required is perhaps more alarming than the
threat.
That is from
a paper, "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene,"
published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
In the Hawaiian
Islands, on several islands, coastal roads are already being eroded away,
forcing highway engineers to consider alternative routes, or extraordinary
coastal armoring scenarios.
Their message
is stark: "Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are still rapidly rising, with
increasingly damaging effects on the Earth's climate. An immense increase of
scale in endeavors to conserve our biosphere is needed to avoid untold
suffering due to the climate crisis."
It is not a
long paper. Please consider reading it. Hereʻs the link again.
And yet globally,
human populations continue to rise. Our energy use continues to rise. Weʻre raising
more ruminant animals. Our forest cover is dropping. In Hawai`i, we celebrate increased air travel
as a good thing, we keep buying gas guzzler vehicles, we buy our air conditioners
as we complain about the heat.
The first
rule about holes is that if youʻre in one, stop digging.
Our
Legislature this year started the session with a laudable array of bills to address
climate change, and then killed almost all of them. Nathan Eagle at Honolulu Civil Beat
reviewed the distressing result.
© Jan TenBruggencate 2019
Posted by Jan T at 9:38 AM
Labels: Agriculture, Birds, Botany, Climate Change, Conservation, Government, Marine Issues, Oceanography, Photovoltaic, Physics, Pollution, Solar, Sustainability, Weather, Zoology
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1 comment:
The immediate step to midi gate climate "change" locally in Kona Moku, Kaua'i Island, is to restore vegetation bands along restored, replenished waterways, tributaries, streams, and rivers leading unobstructed to their estuaries with sufficient healthy flow.
Aquatic, vegetative, avian health restoring proliferation of greenery.
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