Tired of hearing about swine flu? The other flu, avian, can be much worse

The threat of swine H1N1 flu is expected to increase as we move into flu season later this year, but swine flu while readily transmitted, doesn't make most people too sick.

The opposite appears to be true with another virus: avian H5N1, which isn't transmitted too readily to humans, but is fatal it 60 percent of the people who get it.

It's not yet in the United States, but has been identified in much of the rest of the world. And over time, it is adopting more and more hosts. If it changes to readily pass from human to human, it could be a far worse epidemic than swine.

Here are some basic facts, from the Centers for Disease Control. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm.

Most people who get this avian flu get it from poultry—often ducks and geese, but also swans and chickens. It rarely is transmitted human to human in its current form.

Few humans have immunity to it.

“If H5N1 viruses gain the ability for efficient and sustained transmission among humans, an influenza pandemic could result, with potentially high rates of illness and death worldwide,” CDC says.

The strain is resistant to two of the four major antiviral drugs. There are no vaccines.

It has shown up in cats, dogs and zoo animals, suggesting it is gaining a wider range of hosts. “Avian influenza A (H5N1) virus strains that emerged in Asia in 2003 continue to evolve and may adapt so that other mammals may be susceptible to infection as well.”

One caution for travelers, particularly in Asia: Stay out of poultry markets.

This flu was first identified in geese in China's Guangdong Province in 1996. The first human cases appeared in Hong Kong the next year.

In 2003, zoo leopards and tigers in Thailand died after being fed chickens. The next year, a Thailand cat got it after eating a pigeon. The disease has since been identified in Vietnam, Korea, Japan, Cambodia. Malaysia, Laos.

It was found in Russia, Mongolia and Kazakhstan in migratory birds in 2005, and then began moving into Europe, often in migratory birds like ducks and swans.

Cases in humans remain fairly rare, but there are intriguing family clusters, in which multiple members of the same family get the disease. Are they getting it from each other? Is it because of a genetic predisposition to infectability? That's not yet clear.

As of August 31, 2009, the World Health Organization reported 440 cases globally, of which 262 were fatal. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2009_08_31/en/index.html

Most of the deaths have been in Indonesia and Vietnam, but Egypt, Thailand and China are also hot spots.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

Hilda jogs south, breathe easier

Tropical Storm Hilda jogged southward, away from the Islands, in the last 24 hours, and although it is strengthening, even the most widely diverging forecasts keep it away from the Islands.

(Image: The track of Tropical Storm Hilda in recent days shows the jog to the south in recent hours. The Big Island is displayed in upper left. Sourced: NOAA.)

Although the storm, now less than 500 miles from Hilo, is expected to take a slightly northward curve starting tomorrow, Thursday, it is now likely far enough south that the National Weather Service figures it will remain well away from the Islands.

Translation: We may get some south swell, but little wind from Hilda.

The current route takes it across Johnston Atoll on Monday, but forecasts now don't anticipate Hilda will ever reach hurricane strength. Johnston, now uninhabited, should not be endangered by the storm.

That's still not to say Hilda couldn't change direction and bite us. Hurricane Iwa in 1982 swept northward from the southwest to slam Kaua'i.

But forecasters don't anticipate that will happen.

In what is turning out to be a very active hurricane season, Hawai'i may dodge another bullet.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

Hurricane-to-be Hilda and 'opihi picking: Don't turn your back

Hawaii media cheerily announced this morning that Hurricane-to-be Hilda is unlikely to impact the Hawaiian Islands.

That, of course, is so misleading that it's scary.

(Image: The National Weather Service's Mariner's 1-2-3 rule for Tropical Storm Hilda. Source: NOAA.)

First, the Islands certainly won't avoid pounding hurricane-generated surf on southern shores. Might not be as big as surf from some other hurricanes, but there will be surf.

Second, there is a chance the Islands will feel some wind if the the storm center tracks along the northern edge of its forecast path.

Hurricanes are often depicted as dots on a map, representing the center of the storm.

But these cyclones are major features on the surface of the planet, hundreds of miles wide, spreading swaths of destruction along their paths. And in the Northern Hemisphere (that's us) the winds are stronger and extend farther out on the right side of their path—in the case of Hilda, the northern side.

The National Weather Service's favored estimate has its center passing several hundred miles to the south of the main Hawaiian Islands. If it stays down there, there will be some accuracy to the Star-Bulletin's “at this point it is not expected to have much impact on Hawaii’s weather,” and The Advertiser's “Isles unlikely to feel Hilda's passing.”

The news reports might be right, but would you bet your house on that?

This is a strengthening tropical cyclone, running parallel to the island chain, at this writing about 525 miles from Hilo, and moving at more than 200 miles a day. Right now, tropical storm force winds cover a swath 150 miles wide, and that will increase as it reaches hurricane strength sometime Thursday.

Some sailors—cautious for good reason; their lives and their vessels are at risk—use what's called the Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule. They take the forecast storm center positions and apply a 100-mile circle of possible error at 24 hours out, then 200 miles at 48 hours, and 300 miles at 72 hours. Then they push the circles farther to reflect how far tropical storm force winds extend. Tropical storm winds are 39 miles an hour and more.

If you apply the Mariner's 1-2-3 rule to Hilda, the southern Big Island is within the zone. See the image above.

Media reports unfortunately often shuttle between panic and calming reassurance. The best indications are that Tropical Storm Hilda will remain far enough south to have minimal impacts, but Hawai'i residents need to heed the lesson of 'opihi pickers—go about your business, but don't turn your back to the ocean.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

H1N1 Swine Flu hops to turkeys; threat not clear

Just when you thought it was safe to get a little sniffle, the swine flu virus has taken another potentially scary turn.

This bug known as H1N1, which has pieces of human, bird and pig flu in its genetic makeup, and which jumped earlier this year from hogs to humans, has now jumped again into birds.

In this case turkeys—specifically turkeys at a commercial turkey operation in Chile.

(Image: A Centers for Disease Control map shows Hawai'i has "regional" H1N1 flu, along with the southwestern states and the southeast. Only Alaska and Maine, with "widespread" flu, rank higher. Credit: CDC.)

Just what this means is not yet clear, and it might not be trouble, but it could be a step toward something bad. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are monitoring.

Meanwhile, the swine flu virus we're familiar with has continued to spread. It is in all parts of the United States, and 522 people have died—mostly people with other underlying health issues that became fatal when the flu virus was added to them.

This flu has comparatively mild symptoms, but it spreads more readily than normal seasonal flu. One of its interesting characteristics is that it is still around in August, when flu is comparatively rare.

“Most state health officials are reporting local or sporadic influenza activity. Two states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. Any reports of widespread influenza activity in August are very unusual,” says the CDC.

Most of the people who catch the flu tend to be younger, suggesting some previous flu bug provided older humans with some level of resistance. And most people who do get the flu are over it in a week.

In the swine-to-turkey story, the infected turkeys don't suffer serious symptoms, either.

International health officials can't seem to decide whether this transmittal to birds is curious or ominous. In the reporting, you get a little of both.

There are a few citations that express fear for a “superflu” which spreads as easily as H1N1 swine flu, but is also more frequently fatal. But while that has always been a possibility, there is no evidence that there's a new bug like that now.

An Associated Press story included this cautious note: "What the turkeys have is the human virus — there is no mutation at all," Deputy Health Minister Jeannette Vega told Chile's Radio Cooperativa on Friday.

Stay tuned.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

Plastics are forever, but a forever changing threat

Plastic lasts a long time, but new research indicates that in the ocean, it changes form and can become even more of a threat to marine life with time.

A team of researchers reported that plastics break down comparatively quickly at sea—but even as they change appearance, they remain or become even more dangerous to marine life.

(Image: Hawai'i residents know that tons of plastic debris washes up on our beaches, but the rest of the North Pacific is also a target for this marine debris. Here, a Japanese boy stands by a huge chunk of Styrofoam. Katsuhiko Saido photo.)

Larger plastic objects can be a choking hazard to sea creatures. An example is a plastic shopping bag mistaken by a sea turtle for a jellyfish.

Smaller pieces—toothbrushes, bottle caps, cigarette lighters—can kill young seabirds like Laysan albatrosses, whose bellies are so full of plastic trash that they can't eat real food. At the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands rookeries, you find their dried up bodies decomposing, with fist-sized clutches of plastic debris where there bellies were.

But as these pieces pf [plastic crack and break up into smaller and smaller pieces over time, they release man-made chemicals into the ocean. These chemicals can be even more hazardous to marine life than the larger pieces, said Katsuhiko Saido, a chemist at Nihon University in Japan.

“Plastics in daily use are generally assumed to be quite stable,” said study lead researcher Katsuhiko Saido, speaking at an American Chemical Society meeting in Washington. “We found that plastic in the ocean actually decomposes as it is exposed to the rain and sun and other environmental conditions, giving rise to yet another source of global contamination that will continue into the future.”

His team studied decomposing polystyrene plastics in a lab, and were able to measure the production of a range of chemical compounds. The decomposition occurs even in cool ocean waters and does not require high heat.

“When the study team was able to degrade the plastic, it discovered that three new compounds not found in nature formed. They are styrene monomer (SM), styrene dimer (SD) and styrene trimer (ST). SM is a known carcinogen and SD and ST are suspected in causing cancer,” said the American Chemical Society release on the report.

Other stories on this research here and here.

Here is the American Chemical Society release on the work.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009