The Big Dogs in emissions: electricity and transportation

We can talk about recycling newspaper and aluminum cans, composting and reusing our containers, but the big dogs in the global climate issue are electrical use and transportation.

(Image: The tailpipe is one of the major producers of carbon dioxide in the U.S.)

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in a report issued in April 2008, showed that among sources of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the nation's leading culprits are electrical generation and transportation.

They're huge.

The extensive executive summary for the report is available here: http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads/08_ES.pdf. Included is a list of greenhouse gas emissions through 2006. (For the whole report, see http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html.)

If your eyes glaze over when you see a lot of numbers, here's the short version: Between two-thirds and three-quarters of all carbon dioxide emissions in the United States come from electrical generation and transportation.

What to do about it? A few ideas are to find ways to cut your electric bill, drive less or in a more fuel-efficient car, and minimize long-distance travel.

For folks who like numbers, here are some: In 2006—the most recent year for which there are data—the nation is calculated to have produced 5,983.1 teragrams of CO2 and CO2 equivalent greenhouse gases. It's a big number—nearly 6,000 grams with 12 more zeros after it: 5,983,100,000,000,000.

If my calculations are right, that amounts to 6.6 billion tons. (Does your car weight a ton? Imagine the weight of 6.6 billion cars. And incidentally, 6.6 billion was the July 2007 estimate for the number of humans on the planet, but we digress.)

Of that total, the burning of fossil fuels represents 5,638 teragrams, more than 94 percent.

And of the fossil fuel burning, electrical generation is 2,328 teragrams or 41 percent and transportation is 1,856 teragrams or 33 percent.

Together, electrical generation and the fuel in your cars and planes represent 74 percent of all fossil fuel emissions, and 70 percent of all CO2 emissions from all sources.

Industrial fossil fuel emissions come in a poor third after power plants and motor vehicles.

As an aside, let's talk about a natural source of CO2.

Every now and then, you may run into someone who minimizes the human impact on climate, with the argument that volcanoes put lots more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than humans.

That argument is laughably off the mark. See a U.S. Geological Survey. Hawaiian Volcano Observatory post of last year: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volcanowatch/2007/07_02_15.html.

It says, in part, that all the volcanoes in the world produce less than one percent the CO2 that human activities do. All the volcanoes in the world produce less than a fifth of greenhouse gas emissions of the United States alone.

© 2008 Jan W. TenBruggencate

New genetic study throws 'ōhi'a (Metrosideros who?) into identity crisis

There's nothing easy about the Hawaiian 'ōhi'a.

Researchers doing genetic analyses of the trees are finding that they are just as confusing inside (genetically) as they are outside (in their physical appearance).

(Image: The shiny red leaves of a young 'ōhi'a, whose genetic makeup is now in doubt.)

'Ōhi'a are the dominant trees in many native Hawaiian forests. And they are amazingly variable.

Many folks search the forests for alternative flower colors. The starburst blossoms are generally seen in shades of red, but rarely are found in orange, salmon and yellow colors.

The leaves can be round and stiff or lance-shaped and delicate. They can be hairy or smooth, dull or shiny. New leaves can be greenish with purple-red veins or entirely red. The 'ōhi'a can grow into a towering tree or remain a shrub. In bog habitats, mature flowering trees can be found just a few inches tall, natural bonsai.

It's no wonder that the dominant Hawaiian species is known as polymorpha, many forms.

Over the years, scientists have sought to classify the 'ōhi'a, a member of the myrtle family whose genus is Metrosideros, by its appearance. One problem was that in the same small grove, they would find many different-looking trees growing together and presumably interbreeding.

New research is suggesting that, with 'ōhi'a, you can't make species distinctions based on appearance. More on that later.

Previous genetic work has suggested that the tree crossed the Pacific from New Zealand, and that it may have made the jump to Hawai'i from the Marquesas, where botanists find the closest relatives of Hawaiian 'ōhi'a.

And scientists have long believed that the tree that now dominates much of the Hawaiian natural landscape was a comparatively late arrival—showing up as little as a million years ago.

New dating is being reported in a paper in the “Proceedings of the Royal Society B,” by Diana Percy, Adam Carver, Warren Wagner, Helen James, Scott Miller and Robert Fleischer, all of the Smithsonian Institution, and Clifford Cunningham of Duke University. The paper is entitled, “Progressive island colonization and ancient origin of Hawaiian Metrosideros (Myrtaceae).”

Their genetic research finds that 'ōhi'a has been in the Hawaiian Islands for about 3.9 million years, and perhaps a million or two more. At that time, Kaua'i and Ni'ihau were the only emerged islands among the current main Hawaiian Islands, meaning that 'ōhi'a must have channel-jumped to newer islands as they formed.

'Ōhi'a seeds are tiny, can be dispersed by wind, can survive a while in salt water, and the tree grows quite well on new lava flows. So the genus is clearly capable of making such journeys.

The researchers studied 97 'ōhi'a samples from five islands. Their samples included representatives of the five accepted Hawaiian Metrosideros species: macropus, polymorpha, rugosa, tremuloides and waialealae. They also looked at samples of Metrosideros collina from the Austral, Society and Marquesan islands, Metrosideros excelsa from New Zealand and Metrosideros nervulosa from Lord Howe Island.

Molecular dating work on the samples suggests Kaua'i was inhabited first by Metrosideros, and that from there the genus jumped to O'ahu. Moloka'i was populated on at least two different occasions from O'ahu, but also on one occasion directly from Kaua'i. Maui got its 'ōhi'a from Moloka'i, and the Hawai'i island got its from Maui about half a million years ago.

“Metrosideros...appears to have diversified in the Hawaiian Islands following the geological succession of islands,” the authors write. “The chloroplast data present a distinct geographical pattern that supports a hypothesis of sequential colonization of progressively younger islands.”

The scientists were able to confirm that the Hawaiian 'ōhi'a are most closely related to the Marquesan forms than any other. They are, in fact, close enough that the authors argue that the Marquesan and Hawaiian plants ought to be part of the same genus. They suggest that the name Metrosideros polymorpha be used for both.

Wagner, in an email, said the research will require botanists to reconsider the way Hawaiian wildlife evolved, since it's now clear that the 'ōhi'a was a part of the Hawaiian botanical picture far earlier than anyone previously thought.

“An older origin of the genus in the Hawaiian islands significant implications for understanding the evolution of Hawaiian ecosystems of which 'ōhi'a is a major component and the evolution of endemic organisms that may have co-evolved with Metrosideros,” Wagner wrote.

The other thing that's new is that current understandings of how to differentiate the members of the genus are going to require rethinking.

Wagner said their work indicates that the physical appearance of the plant doesn't correlate with its DNA, and that physical characteristics don't accurately reflect differences at a molecular level. That means that if you separate the Hawaiian 'ōhi'a into different species and varieties based on their appearance, you'll run into trouble.

“This was both a surprise and not surprising. This Metrosideros has been a challenge to biologists trying to classify it for many decades with various systems proposed by each of the major botanists to have studied the Hawaiian flora,” Wagner said. And in that list of botanists, he includes himself.

Not only isn't the physical appearance an unreliable guide to how the plans are actually genetically related—it turns out it's no guide at all.

“To find a situation where we are not sure how dependable the characters are is not so surprising. That there was essentially no correlation was a surprise,” Wagner said.

There are a number of theories on how this could happen. One is a whole lot of interbreeding within the 'ōhi'a clan. Another is that different genetic lines could evolve into similar-looking plants. Or perhaps something else.

“We are embarking on additional studies to attempt to determine more definitive answers to this puzzle,” Wagner said.

© 2008 Jan W. TenBruggencate

Climate emissions metrics: figuring it out so you can manage it

The issue of metrics is compelling: You can't manage what you don't understand.

That is one reason the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa has signed up as a founding member of The Climate Registry.

The university hopes to manage its output of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and is joining others around the United States and Canada to try to get a handle on just what greenhouse gases they are producing, and to develop some kind of standard on how to measure them.

The Climate Registry has among its members 75 cities, counties, corporations and non-profits. UH Mānoa is the first university member.

Its goal is to produce verifiable reports that will be publicly available. Thus, UH Mānoa will annually issue a statement that recounts its greenhouse gas emissions in a standardized form under The Climate Registry General Reporting Protocol. The standards were established based on ones developed by the World Resource Institute and the World Bank Council for Sustainable Development.

The university's report will then be verified by an independent agency appointed by The Climate Registry.

UH Mānoa's Mānoa Climate Change Commission helped move the institution into the registry.

The importance to the University of this kind of climate impact tracking was presaged in February 2007 by then-interim campus chancellor Denise Konan, and now economics professor, who wrote:

“The University of Hawai'i at Mānoa has been heavily reliant on fossil fuels through our consumption of electricity, travel patterns and other practices. We are also well equipped to explore alternative technologies and choices that promote our lifestyles through more sustainable practices. By tracking and demonstrating our impact on reduction of the generation of greenhouse gases we can serve as a living educational model,” Konan wrote as part of Mānoa's Climate Commitment.

The campus is committed to reducing its energy use by 30 percent by 2012 and to promoting the development of renewable energy resources—enough to have a quarter of the campus energy come from renewables by 2020.

“The emissions template developed by Mânoa provides accurate reporting that is specific to Hawai‘i. By taking a lead, Mânoa will ease the way for others to make a public commitment to our climate,” said Laurence Lau, the state Health Department's deputy environmental health director.

For more information on the Mānoa Climate Change Commission, see http://sustainability.hawaii.edu/group/Climate.

For more on The Climate Registry, see http://www.theclimateregistry.org.

© 2008 Jan W. TenBruggencate

Alaska quake: no tsunami threat, but a caution

A powerful earthquake Thursday afternoon in the Andreanof Islands of Alaska's Aleutian chain did not launch a tsunami toward Hawai'i, but it's a clear warning.

Two of the most damaging tsunami in Hawai'i history came from the same region.

(Image: Pacific Tsunami Warning Center chart of the recent Alaska temblors.)

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center report of no tsunami hazard went out at 3:46 p.m. Hawai'i time, just 12 minutes after the 3:34 p.m. shake, which registered a 7.0, although later recalculations dropped it to magnitude 6.6.

“A destructive Pacific-wide tsunami is not expected and there is no tsunami threat to Hawai'i,” said a statement from the center.

The quake was centered at 51.8 degrees north and 177.6 west. That placed it a little more than 1,200 miles from Anchorage.

“It was a pretty good-sized quake. It was heavily felt in the Adak area,” said Bruce Turner, geophysicist and science officer with the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center.

It normally takes a considerably larger quake to generate a significant tsunami, but it was interesting that Alaska had a very active day Thursday from an earthquake perspective. (see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/).

Just a day earlier, at nearly the same location, there was a 5.1 quake. And smaller shakers have rumbled up and down the Aleutian chain during the past 24 hours, most of them located in the immediate vicinity of these earthquakes.

For a list, see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php.

The 1946 tsunami that caused severe damage in Hawai'i came from a location at 52.8 degrees north and 163.5 degrees west, about 900 miles away.

The 1957 tsunami came from a quake quite close to yesterday's temblor. It was at 51.5 degrees north, 175.7 degrees west, just 84 miles away and within the Andreanof Islands.

Thanks to an advanced Pacific tsunami warning system, Hawai'i residents are likely to get several hours of notice of the arrival of a tsunami generated from the Alaskan region—plenty of time to update their evacuation kits and get away from the coast.

Locally generated tsunami are a different story. There may be only minutes. And if you're on the island where the wave was generated, you need to move to high ground as soon as you feel the ground shaking.

From a statistical standpoint, Hawai'i has been free of damaging tsunami for an unusually long time. Does it mean one is imminent? Not necessarily, but it pays to be ready.

One ready place to look for information is the phone book. The directories once had the emergency information section reliably in the front pages, but some now have those pages in the middle section of the book.

These pages include tsunami inundation maps. If you live within a few blocks of the shore, check the map to see whether you are in an evacuation area.

Most residents should have an emergency evacuation kit at hand. It will include your prescription medications, glasses, cash and special items like special foods, diapers for babies and important personal documents. It might also include a personal first aid kit, water, flashlight and other gear. A more complete list is in the phone book.

Here are other earthquake resources:

Earthquakes Data Magnitude 5.0 and Over 2005 - 2014
http://krilloil.com/blog/earthquake-data/
In addition you can find more info on the topic below:
Seismic Monitor
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
Quakes - Live Earthquakes Map
http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/

© 2008 Jan W. TenBruggencate

Island ground water reacts to big surf

Deep under the islands' surfaces, the groundwater is moving.

It flows, of course, from the mountains toward the sea. As rain falls on the surface of islands, it percolates down and forms a vast underground lake within the volcanic matrix. That lake is constantly at flow seaward, where the island's fresh water leaks into the salt water surrounding the islands. In some areas, swimmers can feel its cool flow where it enters the ocean below the surface near shore.

But the groundwater also moves up and down.

Researchers have long known that the water in the islands' aquifers rises and falls with changes in atmospheric pressure. But it also moves with the tides, and with periods of storm surf along the coast.

When storm surf pounds an island's shore, the change in the height of the groundwater can be measured in wells miles inland, according to research by Kolja Rotzoll, of the U.S. Geological Survey's Pacific Islands Water Science Center.

Rotzoll and Aly El-Kadi, both associated with the University of Hawai'i UH Dept of Geology and

Geophysics Water Resources Research Center, published their study on the subject in the Journal of Hydrology.

The work was part of Rotzoll's work toward his doctorate degree. Its aim was to better understand the movement of water in the aquifers under islands. In research on Maui, he found that the impact of a major storm surf event on the coast can be measured as a rise in the water level in wells more than three miles in from the shore.

“The change in water level travels through the aquifer and can be detected as a net rise in the ground-water table kilometers away from the coast,” he said in an email.

The effect is apparently the reaction to a rise in sea level at the coast. When storm surf occurs, it shoves vast amounts of water up against the island, creating a rise in the overall level of the water.

That rise is reflected in the groundwater, although the damping effect of the island's rock does interfere with the reaction. The farther inland you measure it, the less is the rise in groundwater, and the longer is the delay in a reaction to a coastal surf event, says the paper by Rotzoll and El-Kadi.

“The research shows how ocean processes (waves, tides) are connected with responses in the aquifers,” Rotzoll said.

In areas with dense rock, the flow of fresh water can be slowed, and the reaction of ocean events like storm surf can be muted. In these areas, the water level may be significantly higher near the coast than the sea level.

On the other hand, in areas where there is little interference with the water flow, the movement is speeded, and coastal areas have groundwater much closer to the sea level.

“If the coast does not have a confining sediment layer like we have in the Pearl Harbor/Honolulu area, the water-table is close to sea level near the coast. Also due to the missing caprock, ocean water-level changes are transmitted more easily. Hence, in times of high tides or big swell events, the natural ground-water flow gradient could be reversed, which has consequences for not only ground-water flow, but also contaminant transport and might impact water quality,” Rotzoll wrote.

The Kona coast, where water readily flows through porous lava rock, is an example of an area where the action of the ocean can have an exaggerated impact on the groundwater near the shore, he said.

© 2008 Jan W. TenBruggencate