Hurtling in reverse on greenhouse emissions

In the headlong international race to get control over climate change, you might wonder about pace.

Are we careening forward, creeping forward, barely moving?

Actually, we're hurtling in reverse.

(Image: The Keeling Curve, showing atmospheric CO2 levels continue to rise. Credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.)

Whatever starting line you choose is disappearing in the distance over the dashboard.

Japan's carbon dioxide emissions just hit a new record. Higher than they've ever been.

To be fair, Japan's arguably been doing at least a reasonable job, keeping emissions stable since 1995 at between 1.2 and 1.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. But they haven't been dropping, and they are not approaching the nation's Kyoto targets.

Nor are carbon dioxide global production figures.

The classic Keeling Curve, in which atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are measured at high elevation at the Mauna Loa Observatory, shows no change in the upward slope.

Despite all the talk, we're producing more and more carbon dioxide.

The average growth rate in parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere was less than 1 in the 1960s. It was between 1 and 2 in the 1970s. It exceeded 2 parts per million in three years of the 1980s, and continued to grow in the 1990s.

In this decade, the rate of growth has exceeded 2 parts per million on average. (See http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/)

The United States, long the leader in greenhouse gas production, has dropped to number-two. But that's not because of remarkable conservation in this country. Rather, it's that China is growing its economy and building coal-fired industrial facilities so fast that it has overtaken the U.S.

Both presidential candidates in the recent U.S. elections asserted their plans to do something about climate, but at some level, this is Nero fiddling as Rome burns. It takes more than something. It takes a great deal.

The oceans are measurably acidifying as the result of rising CO2, and the list of climate effects on the surface is endless.

We are living the reputed Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.”

© 2008 Jan TenBruggencate

Cold freshwater plumes deliver nutrients to the reef

There are special places in the salty ocean off the Islands, where you can swim through plumes of cold, fresh water.

Early residents in arid areas would carry gourds to such areas, and collect drinking water, amazingly, in the ocean.

(Image: Bird's-eye perspective view of the submarine groundwater discharge exiting from Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park and Honokoko Harbor in West Hawai'i. The waters are made “visible” using advanced thermal infrared techniques from low flying aircraft. The huge volumes of groundwaters exiting West Hawaii are plumes of cold nutrient-rich waters that float on top of normal seawater. The flow rates and concentrations of the major nutrients (white inset) of the plume are determined by the scientist’s oceanographic studies, which are then incorporated into the large-scale surface temperature maps. The inset of the Kona coast shows the position of only the largest groundwater plumes throughout the region. Credit: Craig Glenn/ SOEST/ University of Hawai'i.)

Scientists are now learning much more about these oceanic freshwater oases, using advanced imaging techniques.

A recent paper in the journal Geophysical Research Letters reviews some of the techniques and the results. The paper, “Aerial infrared imaging reveals large nutrient-rich groundwater inputs to the ocean,” was written by Adam Johnson, Craig Glenn and Paul Lucey of the University of Hawai'i's School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, and William Burnett and Richard Peterson of Florida State University's Department of Oceanography.

They used low-altitude infrared photography to identify places where water temperature was different. The fresh water that flows out of the island aquifers is much colder than the ambient ocean temperature, and shows up in aerial infrared images as cool plumes that emerge from the island and eventually disperse in the warmer salty sea. Since fresh water tends to float on top of denser salty water, these sites are easy to distinguish from the air using temperature sensing equipment.

The researchers found that this is more than just a fresh water addition to the ocean. It is also an injection of nutrients into the nutrient-deprived Hawaiian ocean—which helps support marine life along the coast. In addition to using infrared techinques to check the water temperature, the authors tested the nutrient contents of water from water samples from the coastal ocean as well as from fresh and brackish wells near the shore.

Groundwater tends to have high levels of nitrogen and phosphorous, which can act as fertilizers to the nearshore marine habitats.

In areas without regular surface rivers or streams, like the dry kona coasts of the islands, the impact is even greater than where there are rivers.

“The input of nutrients to coastal environments via (submarine groundwater discharge) is disproportionately large due to its elevated nutrient load,” the authors write.

And the impact is also changing with the changing face of the landscape.

As human development of the coast expands, more and more nutrients make their way into the groundwater—and eventually into the nearshore waters. The increased nutrient load comes from things like fertilizers and septic systems.

The researchers worked in the dry Kona coast of the Big Island, where groundwater “is the only significant source of freshwater to the coastal ocean.” They found more than 30 major plumes of fresh water into the coastal ocean.

One of the classic views is at the Honokohau Small Boat Harbor. The inner part of the harbor is dominated with cold fresh water, which grows warmer and more brackish as it moves seaward. The propellers of the many boats that operate there pull warm water out of the depths and drag is to the surface, and these warm trails are visible on aerial infrared pictures.


©2008 Jan W. TenBruggencate

Where the fish? Maybe we already caught them.

There's a human tendency to blame someone else's behavior for problems that may have complex causes, but a new study suggests that in declining fish populations, the obvious conclusion is the right one.

(Image: Ulua cruising. Credit: Dr. Anthony R. Picciolo, NOAA NODC.)

The key player in the decline of Hawai'i reef fish...is fishing, says the study—the largest-ever assessment of reef fish populations in the main Hawaiian Islands.

And the proofs are pretty clear.

The study, published in the journal Environmental Conservation, is entitled, “Assessing the importance
of fishing impacts on Hawaiian coral reef fish assemblages along regional-scale human population gradients.”

Its authors are Ivor Williams of the Hawai'i Cooperative Fishery Research Unit at the University of Hawaii and the state Division of Aquatic Resources; Alan Friedlander of the Oceanic Institute and NOAA National Ocean Service; William Walsh and Kosta Stamoulis of the Hawaii Division of Aquatic Resources; and Robert Schroeder and Benjamin Richards of the University of Hawai'i's Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research.

One of the key proofs is this: Across the state, where there is heavy fishing, the population of the kinds of fish anglers are seeking is down far more than the ones they don't target.

“This study shows that the reef fishes most coveted by fishers, such as uhu, ulua and redfish, are severely depleted, and it points to fishing as the main driver of those declines,” Williams said.

Over the years, evidence to this effect has been piling up. This study is a major advance. It looked at coastal areas across the state, sampling fish populations at 89 locations. A number of pieces of the fishery puzzle came to light.

This is important because you can't solve a problem if you don't clearly understand its causes, just as you can't fix a backfiring car until you know whether it's a fuel issue, a spark issue or some other problem. A mechanic's first challenge is to narrow down the causes.

In reef fish populations, there are lots of potential problems: sediment that chokes corals, oil spills, chemical runoff, physical damage from dredging and dragging anchors, and, of course, fishing, are among them.

“Humans can impact coral reef fishes directly by fishing, or indirectly through anthropogenic degradation of habitat. Uncertainty about the relative importance of those can make it difficult to develop and build consensus for appropriate remedial management,” the study authors said in their paper summary.

One assumption of the study was that large-scale environmental problems should affect most of the different fish stocks. When the results showed that only the fished fish like uhu and ulua were down, and other species like hawkfish, small triggerfish, surgeon fish and others were still doing okay, that tended to implicate fishing.

“If the chief cause of fish declines was habitat loss or environmental degradation related to development and pollution, then we would have seen fish declines across the board. Instead, fish declines along human population trends were only really apparent for species preferred by fishers,” Williams said.

Other pieces of information: Targeted fish populations tended to be reduced in places where there are lots of people fishing—meaning urban areas compared to very rural areas. But also, the target species tend to be healthier—even in urban areas—where it's difficult for anglers to get to the water.

“It did not seem that proximity to human populations by itself was associated with fish population declines, but rather that the crucial factor was proximity to human populations who were able to readily access, and therefore fish, nearshore waters,” the authors wrote.

How bad is it?

“We found that herbivores are enormously depleted. The biomass on Oahu reefs is only about three percent of that in remote parts of the state. Parrotfishes are massively impacted by fishing,” Williams said. Herbivores are plant-eaters like uhu or parrotfish, as distinguished from carnivores or meat-eaters like ulua or jacks.

The paper doesn't give coastal pollution a pass. It says that reefs impacted by uncontrolled urban activity result in degraded reefs that support fewer fish. But overfishing makes problems worse.

“Where significant habitat or environmental degradation occurs around heavily populated locations, its likely effects will be to exacerbate already severe impacts of intensive fishing, rather than being the main driver of any local declines in target fish stocks,” the paper says.

©2008 Jan W. TenBruggencate

Orcas, bottlenoses and other cetacean stuff

Hawai'i is known for its humpback whales. You can see them breaching from shore. You can take whale watch tours to get closer. And if you're a regular ocean user like a canoe paddler, sometimes you have to brake for whales.

Few folks know much about Hawai'i's other whales—many don't even know they're there.

(Image: A bottlenose dolphin leaping. Normally it's spinner dolphins that do the acrobatics in Hawaiian waters. Credit: Robin W. Baird/Cascadia Research.)

But they are. They show up occasionally in distress, like the dramatic black-and-white orca that washed ashore at Brennecke's Beach on Kaua'i last week—emaciated and near death, as its pod reportedly patrolled offshore.

In the San Juan Islands between Seattle and Vancouver, orcas are the whale of choice for whale-watching expeditions, just as humpbacks are in Hawai'i.

Orcas or killer whales are rare in Hawai'i, but not unheard of, said Robin Baird, of Cascadia Research. Baird is one of a premier researcher on whales in Hawaiian waters. Among local cetaceans, only false killer whales have a smaller population around Hawai'i, he said.

“They (orcas) are extremely uncommon around the Main Hawaiian Islands,” he said. Because they are so infrequently seen, little or nothing is known about their movement.

These days, in Hawai'i, monk seals are becoming more familiar to beachgoers, as the numbers in the Main Hawaiian Islands continue to grow. For folks who swim in the bays and nearshore waters, spinner dolphins are not uncommon.

Among dolphins, another species is also fairly readily seen, Baird said. That's the bottlenose dolphin. In a new paper published last week in Marine Mammal Science, Baird and co-authors say that an extensive review of photographic evidence indicates that bottlenose populations are homebodies.

Many marine mammals can be identified photographically by distinctive features like color and scar patterns.

They found that there are distinctive populations around each of the main Hawaiian Islands, including Ni'ihau, Kaua'i, O'ahu, Moloka'i, Maui, Lāna'i, Kaho'olawe and Hawai'i. There's considerable evidence that the same individuals show up in their home waters, and that they very infrequently move from one island to another.

“Dispersal among the different areas was estimated at less than 1% per year,” the authors said in a press release.

What this means for conservation is that they may need island-by-island protection.

“The evidence of multiple independent populations within the main Hawaiian Islands has a number of implications for conservation and management,” the authors said. “The fact that there are multiple isolated populations means that populations around any particular island (or group of islands) is smaller and more vulnerable to human impacts.”

Once again, the more you learn, the more you realize that on a species-by-species basis, there's no one-size-fits-all solution to managing natural resources.

Citation: Baird, R.W., A.M. Gorgone, D.J. McSweeney, A.D. Ligon, M.H. Deakos, D.L. Webster, G.S. Schorr, K.K. Martien, D.R. Salden, and S.D. Mahaffy. In press. Population structure of island- associated dolphins: evidence from photo-identification of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the main Hawaiian Islands. Marine Mammal Science. DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-7692.2008.00257.x

URL to see a copy: http://www.cascadiaresearch.org/robin/bottlenose.htm.

©2008 Jan W. TenBruggencate

Hawaiian lobelias--all from a single original immigrant

The Hawaiian archipelago is not renowned for its spectacular native flowers, but it has them, and some of the most breathtaking examples are in the lobelia family.
From amazing spires of ivory blooms that rise from low rosettes of green to drooping delicate lavender showpieces that dangle from tree forms.
(Image: A yellow-flowered Brighamia insignis—another of the amazing range of lobelias in Hawai'i. Credit: Forest and Kim Starr.)
Purples and pales are the lobelias' favorite colors, but the range is enormous.
So, where does all this diversity come from in an island chain so isolated.
From a single introduction, 13 million years ago, according to a new study published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B, “Origin, adaptive radiation and diversification of the Hawaiian lobeliads.”
Its authors are Thomas Givnish, Kendra Millam, Thomas Paterson, Terra Theim, Jillian Henss and Kenneth Sytsma, all of the University of Wisconsin at Madison, Austin Mast of Florida State University, Andrew Hipp of Illinois' Morton Arboretum, James Smith of Idaho's Snake River Plains Herbarium, and, in Hawai'i, Kenneth Wood of the National Tropical Botanical Garden.
Their research updates earlier arguments that lobelias in Hawai'i must have come from multiple introductions.
The lobelia's 126 species in six distinct genus groups, represent an eighth of all the native plant species in Hawai'i. And, say the authors, “have long been viewed as one of the most spectacular examples of adaptive radiation in plants.”
Perhaps the most spectacular.
“The Hawaiian lobelias are the most species-rich radiation of plants derived from a single colonist to be resolved on any single oceanic island or archipelago,” the authors write.
Looking into the genetic material in Hawaiian lobelias, the researchers concluded that the first one arrived long before any of the existing main Hawaiian Islands were even formed. Thirteen million years ago, the islands we now know as French Frigate Shoals, Gardner Pinnacles and Laysan were located where the current main islands are. With the northwest movement of the Pacific Plate, those islands now lie hundreds of miles away, in the middle of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
So the ancestors of modern lobelias, once they arrived here, hopped across channels as new islands formed, riding winds, riding currents, riding birds perhaps.
The source of Hawai'i's first lobelia remains unclear. The Hawaiian group's closest relatives are in Japan's Bonin Islands, elsewhere in Polynesia, and Africa. All are about equally closely related, so there is no clear front-runner in the guessing on which is the source.
The earliest arrivals appear to have been plants adapted to forests, grasslands and bogs, and certain kinds of lobelias seem to have evolved later to suit cliffside habitats and high-elevation environments.
Those earliest arrivals also seem to have been ones with wind-dispersed seeds. Over time, some of the lobelias developed fleshy fruits that were dispersed by birds. Once genus groups like the Cyanea did this, they couldn't move as far and began developing more different species than the wind-dispersed lobelias.
©2008 Jan W. TenBruggencate