COVID-19: The numbers donʻt look good

Anybody whoʻs still suggesting this whole COVID-19 thing is overblown...theyʻre lying to you, or theyʻre misinformed.

It is in fact frightening, and fast getting worse. The United States is still at the start of the upward trend in infections.

Consider this fact that you havenʻt heard on the news: The European Union now has had three times more cases per capita than China.

Here are the numbers: China has had 81,000 cases, and has a population of 1.4 billion. That works out to 57.5 cases per million people.

The European Union has 69,900 cases and a population of 446 million. Thatʻs 157 cases per million residents—three times worse than China.

The United States so far has just 6,420 cases in a population of 331 million, or 19.4 cases per million.

Those case numbers come from this site. The E.U population numbers are from this site. 

Chinaʻs case load has dropped dramatically. They did that with draconian measures, including aggressive quarantine, bounties paid to people who turned in quarantine violators, tracking peoplesʻ cell phones and requiring everyone wear masks whenever outside.

South Korea had a severe outbreak, and approached it in a very different way, with the most expansive testing program in the world: More than 270,000 of its residents were tested as it tracked down and quarantined anyone who was sick with COVID-19.

South Korea has 8,320 cases. That works out to 162 cases per million of its 51.5 million residents. But it has dropped its number of new cases dramatically. The magazine Science printed a story today on how South Korea did that. 

As I write this on March 17, 2020, Italy has the worst caseload in the European Union and perhaps the world—521 cases per million residents. (31,500 cases in a population of 60.5 million.)

Just looking at the numbers suggests much worse is yet to come for the United States. Our population is about 328 million. 

If we are able to limit our outbreak to Chinaʻs size, weʻre looking at 19,000 cases. (57.5 times 328 million.)

If we can keep it to Koreaʻs, then itʻs 53,000. (162 times 328 million.)

But if we get to Italyʻs situation, itʻs 171,000 (521 times 328 million.)

One issue is that while China and South Korea used two different strategies to begin to get a handle on the outbreak, the United States has been using neither. Not aggressive, almost punitive quarantine measures like China. And not aggressive, intrusive testing like Korea.

Our national hope seems to be that a combination of voluntary isolation measures and a moderate testing protocol will do the trick.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2020

COVID-19 Fake News: Bogus "cure" rumors, debunked here

The bogus  home cures for COVID-19 are showing up all over.

Fortunately most wonʻt hurt you, and some might even ease symptoms a little, but not cure you. That said, some of these crazy "cures" can kill you.

Hereʻs one lie: Gargling with salt water will wash the disease out of your throat and youʻll be better. Or gargling with warm salt water and vinegar will kill the virus.

Simple logic reminds you that the virus isnʻt only in your throat. Itʻs also in your nasal passages, in your lungs, in your blood, and even in feces. Gargling isnʻt going to have any impact on most of those locations.

Gargling with or drinking bleach, which some have suggested, has the additional downside of being dangerous as well as ineffective. It can burn your throat and stomach, it can collapse your blood pressure, it can put you into a coma. Donʻt do it. Hereʻs some information from the New York State health office. Also, wiping or spraying down your body with a bleach solution may clean your skin, but it wonʻt have an impact on the disease inside you.

Eating garlic or drinking garlic soup might keep people away from you due to the smell—which is an interesting take on social distancing—but thereʻs no evidence it helps with the disease. Here is that one and a few other myths from the World Health Organizationʻs website. 

Drinking large amounts of alcohol or water wonʻt prevent or stop the disease. The World Health Organizationʻs twitter feed debunks these theories. 

There are predatory personalities online, on radio and on TV who promote bogus cures of several kinds. Often, youʻll find theyʻre selling their special "cure." Theyʻre getting rich on the backs of the sick. Some have already been told by government agencies to stop with the fake cures.

Fortunately, there are several websites that are actively responding to malicious and erroneous medical information about this outbreak. Hereʻs one.

The upshot: donʻt do stupid stuff just because some stranger (or even a friend) told you it might work.

If you do get sick, here are some tips from the professionals at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

See our previous pieces on this disease: 
Fake news: Stuff people are staying thatʻs just bull.
Kaua`i has its first confirmed cases, and debunking fake news--folks, the barges are still coming. 

© Jan TenBruggencate 2020

COVID-19: Kaua`i has its first confirmed cases, and debunking fake news--folks, the barges are still coming

Kaua`i today was confirmed to have its first active cases of COVID-19, in a tourist couple who are being kept in isolation.

The couple is at an undisclosed site overseen by Kaua`i County and being monitored by the state Department of Health. The case is being managed according to protocols set up in advance in anticipation of the event.

The confirmation, which was announced in a mass email from Kaua`i County a couple of hours after midnight, was based on testing of the couple performed yesterday (Friday, March 13, 2020).

Meanwhile, the stateʻs epidemic rumor mill continues to churn.

One of the most active rumors, that cargo to the island is being disrupted, has spawned new runs on supplies.

"I have never seen Costco so full. They had lines snaking away from the checkout counters, some of them all the way back to the pharmacy," one friend told me Friday afternoon.

At Safeway, two women asked me whether it was true that Young Brothers barges have been blocked from coming. Others reported rumors that the harbors have been closed.

None of that is true. I talked to store officials, who insist their supply lines are intact, and harbors and shipping officials. Food and toilet paper are still making their ways to the island. 

What the panic buying and hoarding has done is move supplies from store shelves, where people can get them as needed, into peoplesʻ home larders, where excess supplies are not available to people in need.

Matson took the step of issuing a press release in response to the rumors: 

“Matson intends to maintain all service schedules as normal with three arrivals a week to Honolulu and twice a week calls to each neighbor island port.

Young Brothers, the inter-island barge service, issued its own statement:   

"There are currently NO changes to sailing schedule or cargo acceptance at all ports. YB will continue to monitor COVID-19 and its impact to the State."

© Jan TenBruggencate 2020

COVID-19 Fake News: Stuff people are saying about the disease thats just bull

There is lots of information about COVID-19 out there, and some of it is bad information.

Hereʻs some of the stuff Iʻve been hearing thatʻs not true, or not entirely true.

Q. A friend asked whether, once youʻve had the virus, youʻre immune in the future.

A. The answer is, probably, but not certainly. 

Youʻre generally immune to a virus after having gotten it—at least for a while. However, there have been rare cases in which people have appeared to be over COVID-19, and then got sick again. Was it simply a relapse of the original infection or a new one? Thatʻs not yet clear.

There is also indication that the virus has evolved, at least in China, and that there are now at least two versions of COVID-19 out there. If youʻve had one, you might still be susceptible to getting the second. Hereʻs a link to a scientific paper on that.

The Centers for Disease Control says this: "The immune response to COVID-19 is not yet understood. Patients with MERS-CoV infection are unlikely to be re-infected shortly after they recover, but it is not yet known whether similar immune protection will be observed for patients with COVID-19."

Q. Another person said flu goes away in the summer, so this will be gone by mid-year.

A. Donʻt count on it. This disease has not been around long enough to know. Hereʻs what the Centers for Disease Control says about that: 

"It is not yet known whether weather and temperature impact the spread of COVID-19. Some other viruses, like the common cold and flu, spread more during cold weather months but that does not mean it is impossible to become sick with these viruses during other months.  At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when weather becomes warmer.  There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with COVID-19 and investigations are ongoing."

Q. A co-worker told me he read that if itʻs a dry cough itʻs COVID-19, but if itʻs a wet cough itʻs the flu.

A. Wrong. (Sometimes.) 

As this guide from Johns Hopkins Medicine notes, thereʻs no sure thing with symptoms. A dry cough occurs most often in COVID-19, but not always. Same with fever—some patients have one, some donʻt. Same with soreness and tiredness. Same with shortness of breath. 

A World Health Organization study in Chinaʻs outbreak found that fever occurs 88 percent of the time,  dry cough in 68 percent of cases, fatigue in 38 percent, sputum production in 33 percent, shortness of breath in 19 percent, sore throat in 14 percent, headache in 14 percent, joint pan in 15 percent, chills in 11 percent, nausea or vomiting in 5 percent, nasal congestion in 5 percent, diarrhea in 4 percent, and coughing up blood in 1 percent and  and watery or inflamed eyes 1 percent.

Q. Someone asked, if I get tested, will I know for sure that I am or am not infected?

A. If you have symptoms and a positive test, youʻre infected. The test can confirm that the disease youʻve got is not a cold or flu or other virus and is COVID-19. 

If you have no symptoms and you can get someone to test you, chances are it will be negative. But that doesnʻt necessarily mean you donʻt have it. It could mean you donʻt. Or it could mean youʻre infected but havenʻt been infected long enough to test positive.

A report on a Stanford COVID-19 test said: 

"As with all currently available tests, it’s not yet clear how long a person needs to be infected before testing positive, or whether someone who's infected could be identified by the test before displaying symptoms." 

Q. If I get sick, I can only infect others while I have active symptoms.

A. Wrong. You can infect people a day or two before your active symptoms show up, and you might be able to pass the virus to others for a week or more after youʻve recovered.

 

This German study found active viruses for many days after symptoms disappeared.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2020

Drying laundry efficiently: air dry is best, but in a dryer long and cooler is more efficient than short and hot.

A friend asked a question about energy use in clothes dryers.

The discussion started with the understanding that if you can hang your clothes in the breeze on a clothesline, youʻve found the most energy efficient way to dry your laundry.

But if you need to use a dryer, she asked, is more energy efficient to run the dryer longer at a cool temperature, or shorter at a higher temperature.

There are all sorts of variables in this calculation. Different types of fabric. Different starting moisture levels. The more-dry setting (uses more energy) compared to the less dry setting (more efficient.) Gas dryers with electric motors (more energy efficient) versus all-electric dryers (less efficient.) And within those categories, newer dryers that emphasize efficiency versus ones that donʻt.

But given equivalent conditions, and assuming all-electric, it looks like running a dryer longer at a slightly cooler temperature saves energy compared to running it hotter shorter.

Thatʻs because the heating requires so very much more electricity than the motor.

This paper from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) found that energy savings are available from "using a lower heat setting to reduce the energy spent heating air, cloth, and metal. The clothes get just as dry, though drying time may be longer."

Thereʻs a lot more in that paper, so if youʻre interested, read through it, or at least read the recommendations and conclusions in the last four pages.

And this piece of research is old, but it was authoritatively done by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and it also found that itʻs the heating that uses most of the power in a dryer. The dryers back then were not all that different than those today, and ORNL calculated that 91 percent of the energy was used for heating, and 9 percent for all the dryerʻs other functions: tumbling, blowing and running the controls.

The U.S. Governmentʻs Energy.gov website comes to the same conclusion: "Use lower heat settings in the dryer. Even if the drying cycle is longer, you’ll use less energy and be less likely to over-dry your clothes."

The site also has lots of other tips on saving energy in the laundry arena.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2020