Vol. 2: Swine flu: outright lies, hyperbole and grains of salt

As the real swine (H1N1) flu spreads across the world, the nuttiness of some reports and reactions continues.

The United Arab Emirates just joined a few other nations in banning pork sales. The problem with this: You don't get flu from pork—if you get it, you're most likely to get it from another human.

“It is not pork-borne,” said U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano.

Conspiracy theorists are spinning all kinds of unnecessary silliness, from assertions about dead pigs in China (problem: there aren't yet any confirmed H1N1 flu cases in China) to Al Qaeda involvement. In fact, swine flu has moved to humans before, and it doesn't require a conspiracy.

The Associated Press has reported nearly 150 dead of swine flu in Mexico alone, 20 of them confirmed. Meanwhile, in a more recent report, the World Health Organization says there are 8 confirmed deaths--7 in Mexico and the eighth a Mexican child being treated in an American hospital. What's going on? The WHO actually requires proof--the person who died must actually have had the H1N1 strain of flu. Other organizations and nations are not such nitpickers. Another reason to be careful with where you get your information.

News reports have suggested that Mexican officials have identified “patient zero”--the first human who got sick with this flu. Dr. Rich Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, says the first victim has in fact NOT yet been identified.

When you hear frightening numbers about how many people are at risk, keep in mind, as Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said in a briefing today, that the regular annual flu season in this country makes hundreds of thousands of people sick and can result in 36,000 deaths.

The nation has a stockpile of 50 million antiviral medication doses, states have another 20 million or so, and the military has millions more. Hawai'i has enough on hand to treat 25 percent of its population. The primary compounds are Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and Relenza (zanamivir). This medication helps reduce symptoms.

If a person with H1N1 does sneeze on a hand and the touch something, how long can the virus live and remain infective outside the body?

The Mayo Clinic (http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/infectious-disease/AN01238) reports that they can live as long as two days on surfaces. To protect yourself, you could wipe down with alcohol surfaces like computer keyboards that may have been touched by someone sick, said Dr. Rich Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Frequent handwashing or the use of alcohol gels continues to be a strong recommendation.

This flu virus is still new, and is not a revival of a previous flu virus. “This strain is very different from any previous strain that we've seen,” Besser said.

Its characteristics will be slightly different from the average, but generally, figure that there's about a seven-day incubation period—the period between infection and symptoms showing up. And symptoms can hang around for a few days to a week.

There are still a lot of questions about the characteristics of this particular virus, and about how it will move through the world's populations.

“This is a dynamic situation. It will change,” Sibelius said.

Places to get good information: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/ and http://hawaii.gov/health/FluGuidelines.pdf.

Our previous post on this issue: http://raisingislands.blogspot.com/2009/04/swine-flu-lies-hyperbole.html.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

Swine flu: outright lies, hyperbole and grains of salt

Half of what you read about swine flu in the coming weeks will be wrong, and much of the rest you ought to take with a grain of salt.

This doesn't mean you shouldn't be alert, but it does mean the first thing with which you should arm yourself is useful information.

Media are going nuts over this story, and although it's worth the space they're giving it, they're assigning a lot of folks to the flu story who have no understanding of epidemiology and no business writing complicated medical stories.

One thing you'll see is breathless prose about how this is some weird mutant strain of flu virus, a Frankenstein supervirus that combines features of lots of other viruses. Well, no, not exactly.

Here are the exact words of Dr. Richard Besser, acting head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: “This strain is not unlike other new strains that have emerged. It's an assortment -- it's got genetic components from a number of sources, including human, swine, and avian sources. And that's something that you see with new strains.”

The lead flu story in one of the papers today said health officials “fully expect” deaths. Breathtaking news, but of course there are deaths during every flu season—many, many of them—especially among the very old, the very young, the immunocompromised, those with respiratory ailments and so forth.

As of 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time today, the 30th of April 2009, there was one death and 109 confirmed cases in the U.S. The one death was a toddler with other health problems. That's not to say there won't be lots more. There will be. More than in a bad non-swine flu year? We'll see.

Here's a link with a lot of information: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/. That's an important website, and it is probably the safest place to get your information. Check it before acting on anything you hear on the street.

Is this just an outbreak, an epidemic, or even a pandemic? Some sources use these terms interchangeably. Generally, epidemic refers to a fast-spreading disease, and pandemic means it's really widespread.

Flu epidemics aren't unheard-of. In fact, last year's flu season was considered an epidemic for an eight-week period, according to the Centers for Disease Control definitions.

It's early, but this flu seems to be spreading fairly rapidly. The CDC is still calling it an outbreak, but because it's moving quickly, it probably will qualify soon as an epidemic. Not a pandemic, yet, by CDC definitions, but the World Health Organization has in fact designated it pandemic. Most cases are in Mexico and the U.S., but there are also some in Canada, Israel, Spain, Germany, England, New Zealand, Costa Rica and Austria, at this writing.

They call it swine flu, because it originated in pigs, or has some characteristics of swine flu viruses. Pigs get pig flu just as humans get human flu. But influenza is a cagey virus, it can change and suddenly jump across species lines.

So, sometimes, pigs can get human flu, and humans can sometimes get pig flu. Same with birds and avian flu. This swine flu, a form of Influenza A, mutated to also affect humans. It happens. The CDC says nearly a quarter of pig farmers and one in 10 veterinarians have been infected with some variant of swine flu over time.

But at this point, for the most part, the current strain is spreading from person to person. Pigs are not involved in most new infections in the U.S. And you don't get it from cooked pork. A well-cooked laulau is safe—it's the coughing person serving it that you need to be careful about.

We're seeing a lot of pictures of people running around in face masks. Will this protect you? Maybe, maybe not. “Information on the effectiveness of facemasks and respirators for the control of influenza in community settings is extremely limited,” the CDC says.

As woodworkers know, if you take a deep breath through a cheap facemask, the air just sucks in unfiltered through the sides.

Wearing a mask couldn't hurt, and might help, but you're better off adopting a range of precautions, including staying away from anyone who might be sick and getting a little nuts about handwashing.

The primary way most people are getting it is through contact with contaminated droplets of moisture from an infected person's cough or sneeze, or from the moisture on that person's hands after he or she has coughed into it, or from something they've touched.

If the flu gets into your community, then any cough, handshake, doorknob or shopping cart handle is a potential source. If you have touched a possibly contaminated object, keep your hands away from your face until you can thoroughly wash them.

Here are the state Department of Health's guidelines for protecting yourself: http://hawaii.gov/health/FluGuidelines.pdf

If you get the flu, unless you get tested, you won't be able to tell whether it's swine flu or some other flu. Flu symptoms, although they can vary in severity, are generally the same: fever (often quite high), body aches, headache, cough, fatigue, nasal congestion or discharge, and sometimes vomiting and diarrhea.

It's unlikely most humans have any resistance to this flu. The Type A H1N1 swine virus—which is the designation for the one causing trouble just now—is quite different from H1N1 human viruses. So having had the human equivalent doesn't protect you from the swine form.

There aren't any effective vaccines for this one, but the CDC is working on it. There are a few antiviral drugs that can help once you've gotten it. If you think you're sick and it might be swine flu, call your doctor for instructions. Some of the medication must be taken early to be effective, so don't waste time.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

Clear the weeds, native forest adults don't benefit, but the keiki do

What happens to the remaining native plants when you remove alien invaders?

Perhaps not what you expected.

For instance, mature natives like the 'ohi'a (seedling image above right) don't suddenly experience growth spurts.

But opening up the canopy can let dormant native seeds sprout—seeds that might not have sprouted in the shade of dense alien undergrowth.

The researchers who conducted research on this include Rebecca Ostertag, Jodie R. Schulten, Keiko M. Publico, and Jaime H. Enoka, all of the University of Hawai'i at Hilo's Department of Botany, along with, Susan Cordell and Colleen Cole of the USDA's Institute of Pacific Islands Forestry, and Jene´ Michaud of the University of Hawai'i at Hilo's Department of Geology.

Their report, “Ecosystem and Restoration Consequences of Invasive Woody Species Removal in Hawaiian Lowland Wet Forest,” was published in the Springer journal, Ecosystems. (Ecosystems (2009) 12: 503–515 DOI: 10.1007/s10021-009-9239-3)

The team used several wet forest plots in the Keaukaha Military Reservation south of Hilo Airport. The native forest was dominated by ’
ohi’a (Metrosideros polymorpha) and lama (Diospyros sandwicensis, along with extensive native undergrowth, but had been invaded by multiple species, including strawberry guava, macaranga, albizia, clidemia and the melastome Melastoma

septemnervium.

The non-natives were cleared from a series of test plots, which were then compared over a three-year period with uncleared areas. In the removal plots, where more sun was now able to reach the ground, air temperatures and soil temperatures were higher, humidity was lower, less total leaf litter fell and it decomposed more slowly. Most of that was predictable.

Among the interesting findings was that the native trees, with their competition removed, did not respond by suddenly growing faster. They found no significant difference in the diameter of native trees in their removal plots compared to test plots where no weeds had been removed.

“Despite major environmental changes in the removal plots, native species’ diameter growth and litterfall productivity were not significantly greater after removal, testifying to the slow response capabilities of native Hawaiian trees,” the authors wrote.

“Our results are consistent with the expectation that native species are conservative in regards to resource use and may not strongly respond to canopy removal, at least at the adult stage.”

They did find that while 'ohi'a and some other native trees did not regenerate in the dense shade of alien-dominated forests, their seedlings did sprout in the more open forest created after clearing.

“We conclude that canopy opening is critical to avoid complete conversion of these forests to exotic-dominated systems,” they wrote.

And that's critical to saving the forest for native birds and other species that rely on native habitats.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

Can plastics be green, and just what does that mean?

Is it possible for plastic to be “green,” and if so, just what does that term mean?

Well, there are whole industries out there working on this, and there are certainly plastics being marketed as green.

(Image: Just how green is this stuff? That depends on what "green" means. Credit: EPA.)

But as a definitive term for plastic products, “green” is pretty useless.

In the words of Lewis Carroll, (through his character Humpty Dumpty), the term “means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”

In its broadest definition, green is meant to refer to plastic that is in some way easier on the environment than other kinds of plastic.

Several broad categories of “green” come to mind.

One is plastics that are recyclable—reformulable into new products. Some plastic products are made of mixes of products that cannot later be broken down and put into molds to form new consumer items. But realistically, in most communities, many kinds of even the technically recyclable plastics are not accepted for recycling—so simply having the recycling symbol is meaningless.

The Daily Green has a nice rundown on plastic recycling symbols and what they mean here.

http://www.thedailygreen.com/green-homes/latest/recycling-symbols-plastics-460321

A second green category would be plastic products actually made from recycled plastic.

Still another “green category” is those plastics not made from petroleum products at all, like corn-based plastics. Some folks call these bioplastics, and argue that their net addition of carbon dioxide to the environment is dramatically lower than that of oil-based plastic. Largely, that's because the plants from which the product is derived suck up carbon dioxide while they grow, while petroleum products simply take stored carbon out of the ground and dump some of them into the atmosphere.

Fourth, there are “biodegradable” plastics. We put quotes around the word, because some require quite specialized conditions before they biodegrade. This blog discussed that issue earlier. http://raisingislands.blogspot.com/2008/09/compostable-plastic-challenge-to.html

Some companies are trying to hit as many of these “green” buttons as possible. An example is the Biogreen Bottle, which claims to be “biodegradable, recyclable, reusable and made from recyclable material.” You can drill down through the various claims at the website, http://www.biogreenbottles.com/.

Our worry, given the results of our corn-based “biodegradable” plastic experiment, is that it's hard to test the Biogreen claims, which say they require one to five years of deep landfill microbial action for full conversion of the plastic into humus and methane.

All in all, with plastics, a consumer needs to be alert, wary and pretty well educated to make sense of all the claims.

And when you're reaching into a plastic shopping bag, cutting open a box sealed with plastic tape, ripping through a plastic clamshell container to get at your plastic product inside, you might need to wonder just what in heck you're doing.

©2009 Jan TenBruggencate

Of straw men, red herrings and climate change

There's your straw man, your red herring, your stalking horse—the techniques people use when they don't have a supportable position.

They have no place in debate over serious public policy issues—but of course, they're all over the place in the debate over serious public policy issues.

What prompts this particular post is U.S. House Minority Leader John Boehner's amazing statement this weekend on carbon dioxide and climate change.

What he said, in a discussion with George Stephanopoulos, was this: “The idea that carbon dioxide is a carcinogen that is harmful to our environment is almost comical. Every time we exhale, we exhale carbon dioxide. Every cow in the world, you know, when they do what they do, you’ve got more carbon dioxide.”

Nobody thinks carbon dioxide causes cancer.

So Boehner was using a classic straw man—saying the scientific world is nuts when it claims something it doesn't claim.

Or it's a red herring—get people thinking about cancer when they ought to be thinking about climate.

Or maybe Boehner is a stalking horse—consciously making a fool of himself while something else is going on under cover.

One supposes it's possible Boehner was doing none of these things—that he simply is so stunningly ill-informed that he doesn't know the difference between cancer and climate.

And at some level, it doesn't matter. What matters is that he's stupendously wrong—and that there are people out there listening to him.

We're reminded of the old lawyer's maxim: If you have the facts, argue the facts. If you have the law, argue the law. If you have neither, pound the table.

Boehner, and so many other climate deniers, are resorting to pounding the table.

(The straw man technique is first to misrepresent an opponent's position, and then to ridicule or knock down the misrepresentation. The straw man is by definition easy to knock down.
(A red herring is a false proposition set forth to misdirect the reader or listener from the truth.
(A stalking horse is used to attract the attention while someone else skates by below the radar, often with nefarious intent.)

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009