Monday, July 13, 2009

Carlos now unlikely to regain hurricane status; younger sister continues to lurk

The former Hurricane Carlos remains a tropical storm and is now expected to stay one for the near future.

The cyclone, which is now expected to cross from Eastern Pacific to Central Pacific waters Thursday night, has had an up and down forecast, but National Weather Service forecasters say that through the end of the week, the chances are it won't get back to hurricane strength.

(Image: The anticipated track of Carlos at left, showing its relationship to Hawai'i, with the unnamed incipient cyclone to its right. Credit: NOAA.)

Thus, Tropical Storm Carlos, now with winds at around 50 miles an hour, could get up to 60 or a little more by Wednesday, but is expected to taper weaker by the weekend.

The National Weather Service runs a series of computer models that look at storm futures in different ways. Most agree with the weakening scenario and some suggest Carlos could dissipate altogether by the weekend. But there's one that argues it could still make it back to hurricane strength as it passes into Hawaiian waters.

The current course of the storm could keep it far south of the Hawaiian Islands.

Meanwhile, the unnamed system of thunderstorms that's halfway between Carlos and the coast, and heading west, continues to look like it will develop into a cyclone. If it does get to tropical storm or hurricane strength before it passes 140 degrees west longitude, its name will be Dolores.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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