Thursday, July 16, 2009

Shrinking violets: cyclones Carlos and Dolores

Former Hurricane Carlos is now crashing so fast that it may no longer be a tropical cyclone by the time it passes into Central Pacific waters tomorrow.

The storm, which has bulked up to hurricane size several times in its complex history, is moving westward well south of the Island. It has dropped from hurricane, through tropical storm, and was termed a tropical depression at this writing.

(Image: The two weak systems, Carlos to the south and Dolores to the north, move toward dissipation. Credit: NOAA.)

National Weather Service forecasters expect it to decline from its current 30 mile per hour wind speed to 25 tomorrow. At that point it will be termed a remnant low. It is forecast to dissipate entirely by Sunday or so.

Tropical Storm Dolores continues to move northwestward well to the northeast of Carlos. This system, which attained tropical storm strength Wednesday, was weakening overnight.

Dolores has winds in the 40 mile-per-hour range, but is moving into colder water that is less able to support a tropical system. It could dissipate by Monday, well before it enters the Central Pacific.

At this point, it looks like neither will enter Hawaiian waters with enough oomph to be a tropical cyclone.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2009

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