Thursday, July 11, 2019

El Nino fading out--good news for hurricane-phobic islanders

The mild El Nino that has been in place this spring and early summer appears to be on the way out.

Statistically speaking, thatʻs good news in terms of hurricanes. The Hawaiian Islands tend to have a couple fewer hurricanes per year in periods when El Nino is not in play. 

Here is a rundown on whatʻs been going on, from NOAAʻS Climate Prediction Center. 

And here is the latest news—todayʻs assessment that the current El Nino will dissipate in the next month or so. 

This is the synopsis from todayʻs report: "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter."

That doesnʻt mean weʻre out of the woods. Itʻs still hurricane season, but this suggests weʻll move statistically back to normal conditions, which is about 3.5 named storms per season in the Central Pacific.

© Jan TenBruggencate 2019

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