The mild El Nino
that has been in place this spring and early summer appears to be on the way
out.
Statistically
speaking, thatʻs good news in terms of hurricanes. The Hawaiian Islands tend to
have a couple fewer hurricanes per year in periods when El Nino is not in play.
Here is a rundown on whatʻs been going on, from NOAAʻS Climate Prediction Center.
And here is
the latest news—todayʻs assessment that the current El Nino will dissipate in
the next month or so.
This is the synopsis
from todayʻs report: "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected
in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through Northern
Hemisphere fall and winter."
That doesnʻt
mean weʻre out of the woods. Itʻs still hurricane season, but this suggests
weʻll move statistically back to normal conditions, which is about 3.5 named
storms per season in the Central Pacific.
© Jan TenBruggencate 2019
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